Captain Jack vs The Fantasy Football Crew vs The Fantasy Football Toolkit
Three weeks in and I have been getting my butt kicked by The Fantasy Football Crew in our Sit Start picks, so I need to make some moves to get a W for Week 12. Regardless, there is some great insight to be found in this column, and I highly suggest that everyone looks into the advice being giving here because it is pretty spot on. Good luck to everyone in Week 12 and be sure to follow me on twitter to see all my updates and ask any questions https://twitter.com/CaptainJackFF
I will start off with my friends at the Fantasy Football Crew (http://thefantasyfootballcrew.com/ ) picks first
Start em!
Case Keenum
I know, I told you to confidently start him last week and look what happened. He may have ended up with a nice game but because Kubiak pulled him for Schaub for no apparent reason (still salty about it), we will never know. However, this week the Texans square off against an improved but still pedestrian Jacksonville team. I guess Kubiak just needed to reassure himself that Schaub was this season’s Mark Sanchez but all that is over now and Keenum has been named the starter for Sunday’s game. If you have a QB on a bye or tough match-up, I suggest thinking about starting Keenum instead.
Frank Gore
Many fantasy owners have asked about Frank Gore this week. Listen to me when I say this, Gore will be a top ten RB this week. Your worries are somewhat understood because of Gore failing to find the end-zone for the last two weeks and coming off one of his worst fantasy performances last week against the Saints. However, Frank Gore is still seventh on the season in fantasy points for RB’s. He also has a nice matchup this week against Washington who gives up the fifth most fantasy points to RB’s. Expect Gore to have a big week and silence the critics.
Vincent Jackson
Vincent Jackson’s value has clearly skyrocketed since the Bucs made the change to Mike Glennon at QB. Glennon is not afraid to throw the ball down the field and nine times out of ten; he is looking for V Jax. This week, the Bucs will face a Detroit Lions defense that has given up the most fantasy points to WR’s over the past four weeks. I think we all saw Antonio Brown have a field day against them. With Jackson coming off a one touchdown 165 yards performance, I am betting on V Jax this week.
Greg Olsen
Olsen is coming off a nice double digit performance last week against New England. He has been pretty solid for a TE that nobody has really talked about all season. The Panthers are red hot right now having won their last six games and there is no doubt they know how to put points on the board. Olsen is one of Cam’s favorite red-zone targets so against a Miami defense that has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to TE’s this season, Olsen becomes a must start in all formats.
Carolina D/ST
I had to go with my Panthers here. They have been a top five defense against the run and the pass. This match-up against the Dolphins should be a no brainer. The Dolphins certainly do not look like the same team that came out of the gates guns blazing early in the season. They just haven’t been able to put it all together and lately it just seems like its getting worse. Panthers are a great fantasy defense and especially this week as their opponent is no stranger turning the ball over.
Sit em!
Robert Griffin
Over the last two weeks, no QB has outscored RG3 in fantasy points. That may surprise some of you for a good reason. That stat is very deceiving. While the games ended up being close at the end, a lot of Griffin’s production came in “garbage time” or when they were down by two or more scores in both of his last two games. This week, he has a very tough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers and I would strongly consider benching him for another QB with a favorable matchup. See Case Keenum.
Bobby Rainey
Rainey had a HUGE coming out party last week against the Falcons when he rushed for 163 yards to go along with two rushing TD’s and one receiving. That’s good enough for over 34 fantasy points in all formats! I was also one that told people to pick up Rainey rather than Leonard just based on potential and I do like Rainey a lot going forward. That being said, this week the Bucs face a Detroit defense that has allowed the least fantasy points to RB’s over the last four weeks holding opposing backs to less than 8 fantasy points per game. Keep Rainey on your team obviously; just don’t start him this week!
Keenan Allen
Allen has become a very popular WR2-Flex play this season as he emerged as Phillip Rivers number one target. He has been posting very solid numbers this season but I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if that changes this week. Allen is coming off a knee injury that had him sidelined most of the fourth quarter last week and now going up against the (in my opinion) second best defense in the league, I would caution you to not lean heavily on Keenan Allen. Look for Kansas City to keep Allen in check this week.
Jordan Reed
Reed is currently questionable for this Monday night’s showdown against San Francisco after suffering a concussion that had him sidelined for most of last week’s loss against Philadelphia. Whether Reed is active or not, he without a doubt belongs on your bench. The Niners have not allowed a TD to a TE in the last four games. In fact, they have only allowed an average of 1.6 fantasy points to TE’s since week eight! With RG3 and his teammates not on the same page and a tough matchup against the Niners, Reed should not be started in any formats.
St. Louis D/ST
Would you believe me if I told you that over the last four weeks, only three teams have put up more fantasy points than the Rams D/ST? It seems as though their defense has been playing great as of late. However, that is likely to change this week against the Chicago Bears. Even with McCown taking over for an injured Jay Cutler, the Bears have learned to take good care of the football. They have just one turnover in their last four games. Their O-line has also been doing the job as they have only allowed five sacks during those four games. Bench the Rams this week or you will be sorry!
Captain Jack’s Picks
Start
QB- Cam Newton
Miami is clearly distracted with everything going on in their organization, and their defense is not something that the Panthers will be fearing on Sunday. 19th against the pass(Cam Newton can throw) and 25th against the run(he can run), this should be a great match up for Cam. As an owner of Mr.Newton in one of my leagues I know the disappointment that has come from his 14, 12, 6, and 5 point games, but I also know he is capable of putting up those 26-30 point games that we drafted him for. Put Cam in with confidence.
RB- Shane Vereen
Many fantasy owners who started Vereen were freaking out about his limited involvement in the rushing game his first game back, but he was very productive in the passing game with the most targets and receiving yards on the team. With Ridley’s fumble last week, Vereen may be more involved in the running game, but even if he isn’t, the Broncos defense are 28th against the pass.
WR- Eric Decker
Julius Thomas and Wes Welker will not be at 100% if they play, and this puts an immediate increase in Decker’s value. He is currently a top 20 receiver, and while his fantasy value isn’t as high as some of his fellow receivers, he is a solid starter this week. The Patriot’s do have the 12th best defense against the pass, but they have faced some extremely week passing attacks through the year. Roll with Decker this week.
TE- Garret Graham
People have been waiting for Graham to burst on the scene, and Graham gave the people what they wanted last week. He is facing the Jags who have allowed the second most points to fantasy tight ends, and he also hauled in two touchdowns last year against them. All of this does seem to be a little too good to be true(which normally means he will only have one catch or get hurt in the first quarter), but all signs indicate a strong performance.
DEF- Kansas City
This may seem like an obvious pick, but many fantasy owners have feared the Chiefs schedule from Week 11 to Week 14. I hope you didn’t start them against the Broncos, but do not fear the Chargers. They are better than people they expected this year, but Phillip Rivers has finally returned back to earth and hasn’t scored more than 18 fantasy points since Week 5. While his passing yards are high, he has thrown a total of three interceptions in the past three games. With a talented defense like the Chiefs, any turnover Rivers makes has the chance to turn into a pick six. Things seem to go in a downward spiral quickly if the Chargers are off there game at all, and this will be one of those games.
Sit
QB- Jason Campbell
I am a little prejudice here because I have never been a fan of Campbell, and I just do not think he is a reliable option. I applauded the Brown’s for giving Brian Hoyer a chance instead of playing Campbell, but unfortunately we did not get to see the strong potential Hoyer was showing play out. I think this will be a super close game or the Steelers will completely blow out the Browns. Either way, Campbell’s 20 fantasy points against the Chiefs and 24 points against the Ravens are going to be the high point of Campbell’s fantasy production this season. Do not expect a repeat.
RB- Lamar Miller
Just sit him. If he was a first, second, or third round pick for you, continue to play any other running back you drafted or picked up off the waiver wire over Miller. The Panthers third best rushing defense will not have any issue handling any combination of Dolphin running backs.
WR- Antonio Brown
If A.J. Green can be completely shut down by Joe Haden, what chance does Antonio Brown have?
TE- Jason Witten
A semi bold pick here, but I do not think that the Giants will allow another two touchdown game from Witten. They are on a hot streak, and the Giants defense has greatly improved to have the 15th best pass defense and the 7th best defense against the rush. Witten still has every opportunity to be productive, but I don’t think he will put up the numbers he did in their first meeting with the Giants.
DEF- Colts
The Colts are ranked 16th against the pass, and the Cardinals are ranked the 15th best passing team. The Cardinals are a better team than people think(6-4), and they have won their last three games. I have used the Colts defense a few times based on matchups this year, but this is a week that I would avoid them.
You can find all the picks for the Fantasy Football Toolkit here
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