In Jonathan Bale’s ” Fantasy Football For Smart People: What The Experts Don’t Want You To Know”, he discuses the misconception of a running back’s success and his age.
All kind of numbers will be thrown around when age is trying to be connected to a drop off in production for running backs, but age 26 appears to be the peak of a rusher’s top-production levels. Bales used total fantasy points and points per touch to calculate this information, and the results are surprising given the age of backs considered to be in the top 10.
Here are running backs aged 22-26 that are considered to be top-20 options:
Now here are running backs aged 27 or older that are considered to be top-20 options.:
The numbers were a little surprising, as Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte and Marshawn Lynch are all 27 or older and considered top-five running backs. Peterson is a freak and looks like he can play until he is 100, but will Charles, Forte and Lynch see a decrease in production this season? I don’t think I could draft Giovani Bernard or Le’Veon Bell over these players, but age and a possibility of lost touches to Christine Michael make me a bit wary of Lynch.
You shouldn’t solely use this information to make your decision in your draft, but there is a strong indication that we could start to see a gradual decline in production levels from some of the top running backs from 2013.
Categories: Fantasy Football