The Carolina Panthers just signed wide receiver Jarrett Boykin, but that doesn’t mean Cam Newton will help Boykin’s 2015 Fantasy Football value.
Analysts keep suggesting that Newton needs another playmaker alongside Kelvin Benjamin, but with the consistency of Greg Olsen and the veteran Jerricho Cotchery still catching passes, I don’t perceive Newton demanding any more receivers to the offense. Before anyone is ready to call Boykin a “sleeper,” understand that a healthy Newton is not going to need to pass the ball as much as he did in 2014.
In the first four games he played, Newton averaged 259 passing yards a game, while only averaging 13 rushing yards per game. For his final four games, Newton averaged 183.75 passing yards, and averaged 61.5 rushing yards per game. Newton was obviously a little more banged up than the Panthers let on, but he seemed like his own self by the end of the season, and he reemerged as a dangerous dual-threat quarterback.
Newton has only averaged 235 passing yards per game in his first three years in the NfL, so there isn’t much of a reason to believe that he will pass more in 2015. As long as he is healthy, he is going to run the ball. Newton rushed for over 700 yards in his first two years in the league, and over 500 yards in the last two seasons. He also has averaged 8.25 rushing touchdowns per season, and that is included this past season, where he was banged up.
As Newton is able to run more, I think Olsen is inline for a decrease in Fantasy Football production. That doesn’t mean he can’t finish as a top-five tight end, but I doubt he will total more than 1,000 receiving yards this season. Regarding Benjamin, I wouldn’t expect to see a decrease in his production, but I don’t see a mobile Newton greatly increasing Benjamin’s reception and touchdown totals enough to make him a top-five wide receiver. Receivers such as Boykin and Cotchery are just for support and depth purposes.
While you may hear people in your mock drafts talk about how “Boykin will have a good year,” or you read articles offering similar predictions, realize that there is no data to support that. In the 2011 and 2012 seasons, the receiver with the second-most receiving yards recorded less than 700. In 2013, the receiver with the most yards, Steve Smith Sr., totaled 745. In 2014, the receiver with the second-most receiving yards, Cotchery, hauled in 580. One receiver normally stands out in the Panthers’ offense, and Olsen normally accumulates the rest of the receiving yards.
There is no indication that this offense can turn Boykin into a Fantasy Football star. Don’t listen to anyone else who says otherwise.
Categories: 2015 Fantasy Football
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