Individual Fantasy Football Performances and Vegas Win Totals in 2015

Does a team’s performance correlate with the Fantasy Football value of individual players?

I wrote an article last year where I reviewed team win totals and individual Fantasy performance from the 2013 season.

From the data, it appeared that it was most important for a quarterback to play for a winning team. Out of the top 10 players for quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end, 32 of those players played for either winning teams or teams with an even record.

How did it shake out for the 2014 season?

Win Even Loss
Aaron Rodgers Ryan Tannehill Matt Ryan
Andrew Luck Eli Manning
Russell Wilson Drew Brees
Peyton Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Tom Brady
Win Even Loss
DeMarco Murray Lamar Miller Matt Forte
Marshawn Lynch
Le’Veon Bell
Arian Foster
Eddie Lacy
Jamaal Charles
Justin Forsett
Win Even Loss
Antonio Brown Odell Beckham Jr.
Demaryius Thomas Julio Jones
Jordy Nelson
Dez Bryant
Emmanuel Sanders
Randall Cobb
Jeremy Maclin
T.Y. Hilton
Win Even Loss
Gronk Graham
Gates Olsen
Fleener Bennett
Thomas Walker
Kelce
Witten

There were 30 out of 40 players who played on winning teams or teams with even records. Tight ends accounted for 40% of the players on losing teams, which was something that stood out to me.

This is obviously not an absolute science, but I think it does help narrow things down if you have a tough decision. It also helps you to reevaluate your decisions if you see a poor point total projection. Really look into the offense, and decide if you think it can help support Fantasy production for a specific player.

Applying Vegas win total odds from Covers.com, I take a look at a few teams on the edge of a winning season.

Atlanta Falcons: Over/Under 8 wins

Julio Jones and Matt Ryan were each able to finish as top-10 players on a losing team, so this shouldn’t scare too many people away. Roddy White has an ADP in Round 7, so most players aren’t focusing on Falcons’ starters other than Jones and Ryan.

The running back situation, however, looks interesting. Rookie Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman are battling it out, and the offense is supposed to be much more balanced under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. This potentially means more work for the rushing attack, but I don’t expect the offense to abandon chucking the ball to Jones to move the chains. The only thing I would be worried about is Ryan throwing then ball less, but I don”t realistically see that happening.

San Diego Chargers Over/Under 8 wins

I think Danny Woodhead and Melvin Gordon are the players to watch.

I was never sold on Keenan Allen, and Philip Rivers isn’t surrounded with exciting options. He at least has serviceable options in Stevie Johnson, Malcom Floyd, and an aging Antonio Gates. The Chargers hope to find the next LaDainian Tomlinson in Gordon, and he will handle the rock until he collapses. Gordon won’t add value in the passing attack, so watch for Woodhead to have a key roll and become a solid option in PPR formats.

St. Louis Rams Over/Under 8 wins

There may be a few more receivers who find relevancy on the St. Louis Rams because of the stability at the quarterback position. Fantasy players are still questioning how effective Nick Foles will be outside of Philadelphia, but he is an upgrade from the carousel of quarterbacks in St. Louis over the previous seasons.

I’m still waiting to see if the offense can figure out how to utilize Tavon Austin, but I think Kenny Britt is being overlooked. He’s a big target at 6-foot-3, and I see him as a steal in Round 14. Tre Mason still has a starting gig until Todd Gurley returns, but if Mason performs admirably there could be a position battle. Benny Cunningham had a decent chunk of receiving yards last year, and he will be in the mix on third downs.

There are a lot of Fantasy relevant options on these teams, and there are a few guys who are definitely worth owning. Simply use this as extra material to help prepare you for the draft.

Jack Delaney is the owner of Your Fantasy Football Coach. Connect with him on Twitter and Facebook, and make sure to check out his new ebookThe Smart Fantasy Football Investor: 2015 Edition to start preparing for your 2015 Fantasy Football draft.

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Categories: 2015 Fantasy Football

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