Tim Tebow, the Philadelphia Eagles and Conversions

There’s talk. There’s speculation. Has he really improved? Was this all a publicity stunt? Will he, or won’t he . . . make the roster, that is. Of course, I’m talking about Tim Tebow.

He’s on our minds and in our hearts. Well, those of us rooting for him anyway. I can’t deny that I would enjoy seeing Tebow on the gridiron again, but it does seem like the odds may be stacked against him. By all accounts, Mark Sanchez has his eye on the starting job and has been impressing teammates and coaches during preseason. Sam Bradford is on the mend as well and looks to join full contact in practice sooner rather than later. Matt Barkely is still in Philadelphia, but he shouldn’t even be on your Fantasy Football radar. Barkley and Tebow are expected to duke it out for a roster spot.

Even with Tebow struggling to find any team that would give him a shot, he adds value in his ability to convert in critical short yardage situations. This becomes even more valuable due to the changes in the two point conversion rules. For the analysts out there who think this is far fetched, I have some cold hard truth bombs to throw their way.

Truth Bomb #1

Chip Kelly was responsible for one of the new two point conversion proposals. In fact, he didn’t feel that the two yard line was close enough. He wants the ball on the one yard line instead. It wouldn’t make sense for a coach to advocate for something he doesn’t feel is in his team’s best interest, and the fact that he specified the one yard line is interesting. Last season there were only 10 field goals attempted between the 1-19 yard line. This tells us that teams in the red zone were more likely to go for the scoring advantage over the sure thing. After all, every field goal attempt was made. When you factor in that almost a third of games were decided by less than a touchdown, you end up with a lot of teams hungry for points. And to take it a step further, 21% of games were decided by a field goal or less. Teams now have more of an incentive to take the risk of a two point conversion, and Kelly is leading the charge.

Truth Bomb # 2

Could the 27-year old quarterback’s time in Denver offer us any indication on how he could be implemented with the new scoring system? Tebow successfully rushed for three touchdowns out of four attempts from (drum roll please) the one yard line. His strength and size are obviously great assets in short-yardage situations. If Tebow’s accuracy has improved by even a whisper, he would be a monstrous goal-line threat. But, it’s not all about scoring two points. The sort of threat that Tebow represents would be great in critical 4th-down conversions.

Truth Bomb #3

Kelly was one of the most effective college coaches (ever) at two point conversion attempts. That’s right. As head coach for the Oregon Ducks, Kelly aggressively went after the two point conversion. Over his five years at Oregon, he was successful 66.5% of the time. And that includes an “off’ year in 2013 of only 33%. If you disregard 2013, the Ducks completed almost 75% of their two point ventures. That’s practically unheard of at any level of football. Most say that Kelly is trying to bring his college coaching style to the NFL. I see no reason that won’t translate to his goal line endeavours. Expect to see more two point attempts for the Eagles in 2015, and don’t be surprised if you see Tebow rushing into the end zone.

Conclusion on Tim Tebow 

It all adds up: Chip’s conversion success, the new rule change and Tebow’s ability to gain short yardage in crucial situations. If you take these things into consideration, it makes complete sense for Kelly to give Tebow a chance. If I was a betting woman, I would put my money on Tebow making the final roster because of his prowess in short yard situations.

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Categories: 2015 Fantasy Football

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3 replies

  1. I’m no so sure that Tebow is much of a factor even if he does make the team. If the law of averages has anything to do with it, the current 15 yard FG% of nearly 100% would result in 48-49 points out of every 50 attempts. The current 2 pt conversion percentage amounts to totals of 46.5 points out of a possible 50… I think this only makes sense situationally, and those situations are unlikely to add many more attempts per team… Just my two cents.

    • And Philly now has one of the better bell-cow RB’s in the league in DeMarco Murray, I think all things being equal I’d rather have a QB – RB duo on the field and Tebow on the bench.

  2. Excellent points. I agree that the field goal is virtually a lock. But here’s the thing. It’s kind of like mob mentality. The new two point conversion rule is the NFL’s shiny new toy. Teams are going to want to play with it. And if a few make the leap, others will follow. As far as Murray is concerned you are absolutely right. In 2014 gained the most yards inside the 20 yard line, and had 12 redzone rushing touchdowns. He’s going to be a beast. However, the argument in this instance was just for Tebow making the team. His skills, in my opinion, far outshine those of Matt Barkley, and even having him as a threat gives a boost to the Eagles offensive capabilities.

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