2015 Fantasy Football: DraftKings Week 1 Picks

It’s that time of the year again! Fantasy Football is back baby!!!!!

I don’t believe I’m speaking alone when I say that it has truly been too long. Each week, I will identify my top plays for cash games and GPPs and will include expected ownership percentage, which I believe is a very underrated aspect of DFS tournaments. We have been waiting for real football again for way too long so without more babbling, let’s get to the money!!!

QB:

Matt Ryan $7500
O/U 54.5 ATL +2.5
Expected Ownership: Chalk

I expect Matty Ice’s ownership to be pretty high this week in both cash games and GPPs. For that reason, I am going to shy away from him in tournaments.He is, however,a strong anchor for cash games. That Philly secondary is suspect to say the least and Vegas has this game as the highest O/U of the week (shocker, Philly). You can expect this game to be very fast-paced in typical Chip Kelly fashion and Ryan will have plenty of opportunities to put some touchdowns on the board while trying to keep up.

Ryan Tannehill $7400
O/U 43 MIA – 3.5
Expected Ownership: 8.6%

The Miami vs. Washington game is obviously not going to be as fast-paced as the ATL vs Philly but there is definitely still some value to be had. This will arguably be Tannehill’s most powerful supporting cast on offense with the additions of Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings, Jordan Cameron and rookie DeVante Parker (looking like he will play). The Redskins gave up the most fantasy points to QBs in the NFL last season with how bad their defense was. Their special teams and offense is a mess as well and this has the makings of a Week 1 blowout. I would not be surprised to see Tanny drop three or four touchdowns on Washington.

Sam Bradford $6900
O/U 54.5 PHI – 2.5
Expected Ownership: Chalk

You knew Bradford was going to be talked about this week. He is way underpriced in the highest O/U game of the week as I mentioned. The question was never about Bradford’s talent but rather if he can stay healthy. Well, he is full speed ahead for Week 1 after an impressive 10-10 showing against Green Bay in the preseason. He threw for over 120 yards and 3 touchdowns in about a quarter and a half, which goes to show you just how much upside he can have in that Philly offense assuming he can stay on the field. I am very confident with stacking Bradford and Jordan Matthews together in cash games and even in a few GPPs.

So to recap the QB position, I am targeting Ryan, Bradford, and some Rodgers for my cash game lineups and will navigate more towards Tannehill, Newton, and Luck in GPPs.

RB:

Eddie Lacy $7500
O/U 50 GB – 6.5
Expected Ownership: 17.2%

Lacy is the only RB that I am targeting if I am going to pay up at the position. Lacy provides a pretty safe floor with Green Bay being favored in this game with a high O/U. Plus, it never hurts a RB’s production when Aaron Rodgers is your QB. With Jordy Nelson out and Cobb banged up (looks like he will play), many owners will be rolling out an A-rod – Davante Adams stack, but I can actually see this becoming a Lacy type game with the Packers getting out to an early lead. Lacy is a great cash game play and could also be considered in GPPs because of his safe floor.

Chris Ivory $4100
O/U 40 NYJ – 2.5
Expected Ownership: 7.8%

With the beginning of football season having the most newbies to DFS, I expect Ivory to be overlooked in most tournaments simply because he does not hold that name value as other running backs. Aside from that, he plays for the Jets, so most casual DFS players probably couldn’t even tell you if he was the starter or not. That being said, this is a great spot to roster Ivory as the Jets are at home favored over the Cleveland Browns. The Jets defense is going to be strong this season and they should be able to put Ivory and the Jets O in some favorable spots against Josh McCown and the Browns. Ivory is a pretty good bet to see 15-20 touches in this ballgame and at his price, he should be pretty much considered an auto-play.

Darren Sproles $3300
O/U 54.5 PHI – 2.5
Expected Ownership: 6.2%

I expect the smart money to be on Darren Sproles this week but the majority of owners overlooking the “3rd string RB” for the Eagles. Make no mistake about it, Sproles is going to have a very active role in this offense. With Murray handling the bulk of the carries and Mathews behind him, the Eagles have been working on lining up Sproles as a WR in hopes to keep him on the field more. The Eagles have talked all preseason about wanting to get Sproles more touches this season and I can definitely see that happening against a porous Atlanta defense. At his price, he should confidently be owned in all formats this week.

In my opinion, this is not the week to pay up at the running back position. With so many valuable plays like Sproles, Ivory, or even Woohead ($3700), you should be saving at the RB position and paying up for QBs and WRs this week.

WR:

Odell Beckham Jr. $9200
O/U 51.5 NYG + 5.5
Expected Ownership: Chalk

OBJ will most likely be a chalk play this week but I find it hard to not roster him against Dallas. In the 2 games he played against the Cowboys last season, he posted a cumulative total of 180 yards and 4 touchdowns. With Victor Cruz’ status still up in the air for Week 1 and Rueben Randle being his normal, unachieving self, Beckham will get all the work he can handle against the Cowboys. This game also has one of the highest O/U of the week and Eli is going to have to throw to keep up being a + 5.5 dog.

Jarvis Landry $5600
O/U 43 MIA – 3.5
Expected Ownership: 12.8%

Clearly, I really like the Tannehill – Landry stack this week against Washington. Landry averaged nine targets per game over the second half of the season last year. Even with Tanny’s new toys in Miami, I still think Landry is the main guy and I doubt his targets take much of a hit. Look for Tannehill to target him early and often while they lay it on the Redskins.

Eddie Royal $3900
O/U 50 CHI + 6.5
Expected Ownership: 10.3%

We should all remember how Royal likes to start the season off with a bang, like when he scored five touchdowns through the first two games of the season in 2013. No, that is not the reason why I am playing him. Royal finds himself in a new offense this season and is being vastly undervalued to start the year. With Kevin White sidelined, Royal should be in a position where he could see quite a few targets as the Bears WR2 against Green Bay in what is supposed to be a high scoring affair. Royal is a great value in PPR scoring at this price.

At the WR position, you can’t really go wrong with Dez, OBJ, and Julio as the top values on the board. I also really like Jordan Matthews ($7200) and AJ Green ($7800). Those will be the main guys I’m targeting in cash games and GPPs. I also like some Davante Adams ($4400) as a valuable chalk cash game play and some Ted Ginn ($3000) against Jacksonville for min price as a GPP play.

TE:

Greg Olsen $5300
O/U 41 CAR – 3
Expected Ownership: 18.5%

Olsen should be one of the top TE plays on the board. Simply because he is known as a PPR monster as it is and with “Philly” Brown and Ted Ginn Jr. starting at WR, Cam will have to lean heavily on Olsen against Jacksonville. He is a good bet to see double digit targets in this one and he is the only TE worth paying up for this week.

Richard Rodgers $2500
O/U 50 GB – 6.5
Expected Ownership: 14.6%

At minimum price, Rodgers should be rostered everywhere this week with Jordy out. However, I still think he will be overlooked by the casual players resulting in his ownership not being quite a chalk play as you might think. Rodgers is a huge red-zone target for A-rod and look for Green Bay to take advantage of the mismatches he creates. I am playing him across the board this week!

You can make an argument for Gronk, Kelce, and Bennett as good plays this week but for me, it will be all Olsen and Rodgers.

D/ST:

Miami Dolphins $3000
O/U 43 MIA – 3.5
Expected Ownership: Chalk

I am expecting Miami to be a chalk play this week as they should be. I have already made it very clear that I expect Miami to manhandle the Skins in Week 1 and you can expect their D-line to create problems for that miserable Washington offensive line. A bad Washington defense who puts their turnover prone QB (Cousins) in bad spots with little protection is a recipe for tons of Miami D/ST!!!

New York Jets $2900
O/U 40 NYJ – 2.5
Expected Ownership: 5.4%

The Jets D/ST is a very intriguing play this week. Aside from having the lowest O/U of the week at home against Cleveland, their defense is actually good contrary to popular belief. I’m just not a believer in Josh McCown to get the job done, especially with that WR corp on the road. Cleveland fans could be asking for Money Manziel by the time this one is over with!

My top stacks this week:

Matt Ryan – Julio Jones
Sam Bradford – Jordan Matthews
Tony Romo – Dez Bryant
Ryan Tannehill – Jarvis Landry
Aaron Rodgers – Richard Rodgers
Cam Newton – Ted Ginn Jr. (GPP only)

My top fades this week:

Peyton Manning
Kirk Cousins
Jamaal Charles
Demaryius Thomas
Mike Evans
Jimmy Graham
Seattle D/ST

My Bold Prediction: The Raiders beat the Bengals 23-14.

Best of luck to everyone firing some lineups into the $10M Milly Maker this week! For anyone that does not already know, use this link to sign up and deposit on DraftKings and get a free entry into the Milly Maker. The winner will receive $2 Million dollars!!!

Who’s ready for some Football?!?! Let’s Bring Home The Money!!!!

Love (or Hate) my picks? Tweet at me and let me know! @Jon_Kelly_

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Categories: 2015 Fantasy Football

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