2016 MFL Draft Strategy: Draft No. 2

Earlier, I shared the first MFL10 team I drafted for the 2016 Fantasy Football season.

Also, I shared my draft strategy and results from my winning MFL10 lineup last season. You can check it out to learn some of the lessons I am carrying over from the 2015 Fantasy season to the 2016 Fantasy season.

I’m going to change the format in this review from the last one, though, and go over the players I drafted at each position. In the other review, I did a review of each round.

Let’s get started with the quarterback position.

MFL10 Draft: Quarterback Review 

In my winning lineup last year, I drafted Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. That worked out extremely well, as Newton was the highest-scoring quarterback in Fantasy last year, and I was able to draft him near the end of Round 6.

Winston was also a solid pick, as he had five games in which he scored more Fantasy points than Newton.

I’m never the type of player to draft a quarterback early, so I was happy that this draft had quarterback value still available in the later rounds. With sixth pick in Round 10, I selected Blake Bortles.

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Some of the concern with Bortles is that a lot of his touchdown production was during garbage time, but I don’t think the defense for the Jacksonville Jaguars has improved enough in just one season to keep opposing offenses from pouring on points. It will be difficult for Bortles to improve on his 35 touchdown passes, though, considering he tied for second-most touchdown passes in the league last year.

There’s really not much more room for him to improve his stats in that department.

But in terms of improvement, I look at the fact that Bortles threw the most interceptions in the league last year. He also had a completion percentage of just 58.6%. Some leagues count interceptions as -2 points, so if Bortles could have cut his interceptions down to 12 last season, Bortles would have only finished eight points behind Russell Wilson (the third-highest scoring quarterback).

And even if Bortles just finished with the same stats as last year and can’t improve, it’s still great to land a top-five quarterback in Round 10.

I’m not a huge fan of Kirk Cousins, as his biggest performances last year were against teams that were very friendly to opposing quarterbacks. You can find out more of my outlook for Cousins here.

Since it is a best ball league, though, I like having him on my roster for the type of performances he had like in Week 10 against the New Orleans Saints.

Week Attempts Completions Passing Yards Touchdown Passes
10 20 25 324 4

I was able to draft Cousins in Round 13, which I thought was another nice spot to land a quarterback with upside.

MFL10 Draft: Running Back Review

For this draft, I waited on most of my running backs.

I didn’t draft a running back until Round 3, and I didn’t draft my next running back until Round 6.

The first running back I added was C.J. Anderson. I also selected him in my first MFL10 draft of 2016, so you can find out the specifics on why I targeted him here.

The next running back I drafted was in Round 6, and I selected Jeremy Hill. There are a lot of Fantasy players who will hold a grudge against Hill this season, but this was a great spot to land him in an MFL10 format.

His rushing yard totals went from 1,124 in 2014 to 794 in 2015, and he actually had one more carry (223) in 2015 than he did in 2014. In total, that’s a 29% decrease in rushing yards.

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But the one thing you can’t overlook is his rushing touchdowns: 11. He also caught a touchdown pass, so that puts his total touchdowns at 12 for 2015. He had three games with two rushing touchdowns last season, and one game with three rushing touchdowns. In a season long league, you want those touchdowns spread out more to make his results more consistent in each game. But in an MFL10, it doesn’t matter as long as I am not relying on Hill too heavily.

Since my team only starts two running backs, I only need Hill to be serviceable for most of the year. I drafted Chris Ivory in Round 7, who should have a few strong performances throughout the 2016 season as the primary goal-line back for Jacksonville. Last season, Ivory had the fourth-most red-zone rushing attempts in the NFL. Six of his seven touchdowns were from red-zone rushing attempts.

I’m hoping that he and Hill can pick up the slack for one another when one has a down week.

I also drafted Rashad Jennings in Round 9, and he should have a prominent role to at least start the season. The backfield for the New York Giants was unpredictable last year, but Jennings put up a lot of Fantasy points in his final four performances of the year.

From Weeks 14-17, Jennings was the fifth-highest scoring running back in PPR leagues.

The remaining three running backs on my roster were selected as insurance policies. The other owners in my league didn’t feel the need to add these players as handcuffs, but I’m more than happy to have them on my roster.

I drafted Charcandrick West with my 16th pick. I think there is also a strong case to add Spencer Ware to your roster as well, but West will receive the bulk of the rushing attempts and pass targets for the backs in Kansas City if Jamaal Charles is sidelined for any reason.

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When he received 20 or more carries, West was very productive.

Week Rushing Attempts Rushing Yards Receptions Receiving Yards Total TDs
7 22 110 2 19 1
8 20 97 4 25 1
10 24 69 3 92 2

My other insurance pick was Chris Johnson in Round 20. After he ran for 814 yards in 11 games last season, there is no reason he should be available this late. Not adding Johnson to your team as a handcuff if you own David Jonson is setting yourself up for failure.

I drafted Shaun Draughn in Round 12, but from how my other drafts have went, I probably could have drafted him between Rounds 17-20. He’s not necessarily a handcuff to Carlos Hyde, as he is expected to be used more as a pass-catching back. But that roster is thin at running back, and Draughn could have a major role if Hyde gets hurt or isn’t productive.

MFL10 Draft: Wide Receiver Review

I had the seventh pick in Round 1 for this draft. I decided to go with Dez Bryant.

By the time it got to me, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, and even A.J. Green were off the board. Bryant is a little risky here because we saw how he faired with Tony Romo out of the lineup, so his Fantasy value will drastically decline if the 36-year old quarterback gets injured,

But from 2012-2014, Bryant has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in the game. He’s averaged 1,311 receiving yards and 13.6 touchdown receptions during that time.

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We all know what he does when he is on the field. He and Romo just need to stay on the field this season.

I followed up my pick of Bryant with T.Y. Hilton. Even though Hilton didn’t have the season many of his owners were hoping for last season, he still put up great numbers considering who was throwing him the ball.

Over the last four seasons, he’s also been a receiver who has provided consistent results.

Year Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns
2012 50 861 7
2013 82 1,083 5
2014 82 1,345 7
2015 69 1,124 5

And even though he’s only 5-foot-9, Hilton saw 13 targets in the red zone in 2014 when Andrew Luck played a 16-game season. That was even more than tight end Dwayne Allen, and it tied Ahmad Bradshaw for the third-most targets on the team.

With Luck hopefully back at 100%, Hilton should be able to post numbers close to his 2014 totals.

The next receiver I drafted was Michael Floyd in Round 4. I also drafted him in Round 4 in my first MFL10 draft, and I’ve provided a snapshot of the reason why below.

Screen Shot 2016-07-20 at 7.28.17 PM.png

I followed up my pick of Floyd in Round 4 with John Brown in Round 5. This is an offense where multiple receivers can be relevant, even in the same game. The Arizona Cardinals finished with the second-most passing yards last season, and there’s not much of a reason the passing attack will slow down in 2016 as long as Carson Palmer is healthy.

Last season, Brown posted a 65-1,003-7 stat line. Hopefully in 2016, he will have a few performances like he did in Week 6 last year, where he caught 10 passes for 196 receiving yards.

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The Cincinnati Bengals continue to emphasize that Tyler Boyd will be used like Mohamed Sanu last season, but I’m not so sure that plan will stick for the entire year. Brandon LaFell is supposed to be the WR2, but the 12th-most drops in the league helped send him packing from New England. And reportedly, those drops have followed him into practices in Cincinnati.

So Boyd could have a bigger role later in the year if things don’t work out with LaFell.

I then added Kenny Britt in Round 17. I also added him in my other draft.

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Robert Woods was the last receiver I added on my team in Round 19. You’ll find that I target a lot of the same players in the later rounds of my draft as I do throughout my other drafts. You can read more about why I targeted Woods here.

MFL10 Draft: Tight End Review

I’ve been a big fan of Zach Ertz over the last two seasons, but Chip Kelly’s issues with his blocking abilities have reportedly held back his Fantasy production.

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Although he wasn’t very useful for most of the year, his production from Weeks 14-17 is an indication of what he is capable of. In that time frame, he was the second-highest scoring tight end.

Week Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns
14 5 98 0
15 8 78 1
16 13 122 0
17 9 152 0

One concern with Ertz, though, is that he has never caught more than four touchdown passes in a season. He did receive 13 targets in the red zone last season, but he only turned one of those targets into a touchdown.

But if he can consistently offer the production he provided from Weeks 14-17 last year, he is going to be a steal as an eighth-round pick.

I backed Ertz up with Jimmy Graham in Round 11. If Ertz has a solid year, it really won’t matter how Graham performs. If he and Ertz can both be productive, that’s just a bonus.

MFL10 Draft: Defense Review

I don’t have much of a strategy for defenses. If I see a team I like in a round where I can pass on wide receivers or running backs and find them later in the draft, I’ll select a defense.

I added the Kansas City Chiefs to my roster in Round 15, and the Miami Dolphins in round 18.

Here’s what the final roster looked like:

Screen Shot 2016-07-20 at 7.51.18 PM.png

I plan on doing at least 10 drafts this year, so I would post them all as the drafts are completed. Thanks for checking out the article, and best of luck in your 2016 MFL10 drafts.

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Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football, 2016 MFL 10, Fantasy Football

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