NFL DFS Week 9 Lineup Advice

For my Week 9 NFL DFS advice, I am going to review the best plays to make on DraftKings.  I’ll also include the salary prices for FanDuel, and I’ll  let you know if their is a huge price difference between the two sites.

Who should I start at quarterback for DraftKings in Week 9

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers 
$7,800 DK $9,100 FD
Over/Under 54 Packers – 7.5
Expected Ownership: 20%

Rodgers has thrown for 572 yards and seven touchdowns in his last two games. He will continue to throw the ball 40 plus times even if James Starks makes his return. We’ve been picking on the secondary for the Colts all season long. And there’s no reason for that to change now especially if they are without CB Vontae Davis. I love the Packers at home, and Rodgers is one of the safest quarterbacks of the slate.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts 
$6,700 DK $8,000 FD
Over/Under 54 Packers – 7.5
Expected Ownership: Not enough

Luck is currently second in fantasy points among quarterbacks this season. The Colts have a terrible offensive line, and the defense usually puts him in a spot where he is playing from behind. This is a good thing for Fantasy purposes, as it has allowed more throwing opportunities for Luck. The Colts should once again be playing from behind and will need to throw to keep up in this track. Luck is my top tournament quarterback of the week and it isn’t close.

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers 
$5,600 DK $7,200 FD
Over/Under 52 Saints – 3.5
Expected Ownership: 12%

The first thing that jumped out to me was the total in this game, which is very high for the Niners. Kaepernick is at home here and gets one of the best matchups on paper against the New Orleans Saints. I don’t like him much in tournaments, but as a cheap QB option, he is definitely in play with his rushing upside and favorable matchup.

Who should I start at running back for DraftKings in Week 9?

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys  
$7,900 DK $9,200 FD
Over/Under 48.5 Cowboys – 7.5
Expected Ownership: 25%

It is no secret that I am a big fan of Zeke Elliott from a DFS point of view. The guy is an absolute monster and  is running behind the best offensive line in football. Starting him each week should be a no brainer by now. Zeke has now rushed for 665 yards in just his last five games. He is averaging over 22 carries per game, and draws a juicy matchup against the Cleveland Browns this week. The Browns are the second-worst team in the NFL in terms of DVOA vs the rush, and the Cowboys have the second highest team total of the slate. Big Zeke – ALL IN.

Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers 
$7,700 DK $8,700 FD
Over/Under 43.5 Ravens – 1
Expected Ownership: 10%

Anytime you can get an elite running back of Bell’s caliber at half the ownership of guys priced around him, you do it! Although the offense for Pittsburgh has been hurting without Ben Roethlisberger, Bell continues to produce no matter who is under center. Bell is averaging over seven catches and 61 receiving yards per game this season, giving him one of the highest floors of any running back on the slate. He should also see lower ownership as Elliott and DeMarco Murray are in such great spots in that same price range.

Charcanderick West, Kansas City Chiefs 
$4,400 DK $5,600 FD
Over/Under 44 Chiefs – 7.5
Expected Ownership: 45%

West should see similar ownership numbers as Devontae Booker got last week. Spencer Ware has been ruled out with a concussion. It is going to be all West in this one. The Chiefs are a home favorite and based on price alone, West is an absolute lock in all formats. He is way underpriced considering the volume he should see in this good matchup.

Who should I start at wide receiver for DraftKings in Week 9?

Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers  
$7,800 DK $8,200 FD
Over/Under 54 Packers – 7.5
Expected Ownership: 10%

Nelson is in a great spot this week at home against the Colts. I love stacking him with Rodgers in all formats. Because he is yet to have a real big game since Week 3, I think he will be overlooked this week. He still leads the NFL in red-zone targets, and that is likely to continue after this week where I think he finds the end zone.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts  
$7,600 DK $7,600 FD
Over/Under 54 Packers – 7.5
Expected Ownership: 13%

Hilton practiced in full and is all set to play in Week 9. Hilton draws a favorable matchup against the Packers, who rank in the bottom 10 in DVOA vs WR1 and WR2. They may also once again be missing their two best cornerbacks, but stay tuned on that. Either way, Hilton is an elite play in all formats.

Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins  
$3,900 DK $6,000 FD
Over/Under 44 Dolphins – 3.5
Expected Ownership: 4%

This one is obviously for tournaments only but Stills presents some high upside in this spot. Stills has been the Dolphins deep-ball target all season long, but he hasn’t provided much consistency in the 2016 Fantasy Football season. In Week 7, he drew eight targets against the Bills and eclipsed 100 yards along with a touchdown. If DeVante Parker (Questionable) is unable to go, Stills should be in for a busy day against the Jets, who rank dead last in DVOA vs WR2s.

Who should I start at tight end for DraftKings in Week 9?

Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers  
$6,200 DK $7,500 FD
Over/Under 44.5 Panthers – 3
Expected Ownership: 8%

I think this is a week where roster construction makes you unable to pay up at the tight end position, meaning Olsen should be fairly low owned. He may also go overlooked because of the dud game last week against the Arizona Cardinals. Olsen is still one of Cam Newton’s primary targets and should be in for a big week against the Los Angeles Rams.

Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings  
$4,000 DK $5,000 FD
Over/Under 41 Vikings – 6
Expected Ownership: 28%

Rudolph is a big reason why Olsen should be low owned. Rudolph gets the birthday cake matchup against the Lions who are terrible against the TE position, ranking in the bottom five in DVOA. Something to keep in mind is that Minnesota has looked bad recently and this game does have the lowest over/under of the entire slate. I think Rudolph is okay for cash because of the matchup but in tournaments, I would consider him a sharp fade.

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles 
$3,500 DK $4,900 FD
Over/Under 43 Giants – 2.5
Expected Ownership: 5%

This is more of a tournament play because Ertz has been nearly invisible through the first half of the season. He has yet to see more than four targets in a game since Week 1, so that leaves room for concern. But part of that is because he was dealing with nagging injuries. He now gets a favorable matchup against the Giants this week who struggle to defend the middle of the field. If you’re looking for a high upside pivot off Rudolph and one that will be low owned, Ertz could be your guy.

My Core:

Rodgers/Luck/Kaepernick
Zeke/West
Jordy/Hilton
Olsen/Rudolph

My Top Stacks:

Aaron Rodgers + Jordy Nelson

Aaron Rodgers + Jordy Nelson + T.Y. Hilton

Andrew Luck + T.Y. Hilton

Sample Tournament Lineups for Week 9 DFS

For tournaments, I am a multi-entry player so I am not afraid to get exposure to some players that may seem risky but with upside. If you’re only playing one tournament lineup, be aware that some of these plays may not fit the single-entry formats.

Tournament Lineup                     Remaining Salary $0    
QB Aaron Rodgers $7,800
RB Ezekiel Elliott $7,900
RB Charcanderick West $4,400
WR Jordy Nelson $7,800
WR Kenny Stills $3,900
WR T.Y. Hilton $7,600
TE Eric Ebron $3,100
FLEX Darren Sproles $3,900
D/ST Kansas City Chiefs $3,500

Best of luck this week everyone. If you want to discuss plays and strategy, hit me up on twitter @jon_Kelly_ . Also, if you use my lineup to win some money then tweet at me with a screenshot and let me know!

 

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Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football, 2016 Fantasy Football DFS

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