Welcome to the special Thanksgiving edition of this week’s NFL slate. There is nothing better than sitting around with family, drinking beer and having some Chocolate pie. Oh and football too, which means we have DFS! We are going to do things a little differently in honor of the three game slate and just go with a game by game breakdown so let’s get to it!
MIN @ DET
Over/Under: 43 DET -2.5
This game has the lowest over/under of the three games and there is not a ton of places to look on either team for this slate. I am not looking at either side of this game for the Quarterback position as there are too many better options and I do not see a realistic scenario where either of them are the highest scoring QB of the slate. If you are targeting this game, I think there are three ways to do it – Theo Riddick, Steffon Diggs and Minnesota D/ST. I think Riddick is a much stronger play on DraftKings with his volume in the passing attack as FanDuel is more TD dependent. Diggs has been an elite fantasy WR over the past few weeks and is in a great bounce back spot against a bad Lions secondary. Lastly, Minnesota D/ST is coming off a solid performance against the Cardinals and now get to face a weak Detroit offensive line. They are the top D/ST play of the slate. Overall this game is mostly a fade as it should be a low scoring game. Let others load up on the early game while you sit back, eat turkey and watch your lineups climb in the afternoon games.
WAS @ DAL
Over/Under: 51 DAL – 7.5
This is arguably the juiciest game of the slate and not just because it has the highest over/under. Starting on the Dallas side, Dak Prescott has had 20 or more DraftKings points in each of his last five games and now gets the favorable matchup against the Redskins. I think you can stack him with Dez Bryant even with the matchup against Josh Norman. I think many people will be off Bryant just because of Norman and that makes for a great tournament play on a short slate. Bryant has caught four touchdowns over his last four games and Norman isn’t big enough to stop him in the redzone. Lastly, Zeke Elliott is the most obvious play here. He is a home favorite who sees a ton of volume each and every week. He has had less than 100 yards from scrimmage in just one of his last eight games. You can lock him in for a 20 + touch game against a defense that is bottom three in DVOA vs the rush.
For the Redskins, Kirk Cousins is definitely in play as he will need to be throwing more as they are expected to be playing from behind. He has thrown for over 300 yards in three of his last four games so the 300 yard bonus is in play over on DraftKings as well. Rob Kelley feels like a chase after the monster game on Sunday night but he is still way too cheap. He has seen 22 and 24 carries in his first two games as the lead back and 234 yards in those two games. If you’re playing Cousins then it is best to pair him with Jamison Crowder who has been his favorite target particularly in the redzone over the last four weeks. Crowder has caught a TD in three of his last four and has gone over 100 yards three of his last four as well. DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed are all tournament plays if you’re playing multiple lineups.
PIT @ IND
Over/Under: 47 PIT – 8.5
The big news here is that Andrew Luck in concussion protocol and has already been ruled out for this one meaning that Scott Tolzien will start under Center for the Colts. I have already been hearing him getting some buzz as a cheap punt at QB but I personally think that’s a bad decision. Not that the Pittsburgh defense is any good but Tolzien is not good either. If he is going to be even semi-popular, it is going to be a 100% fade for me as I think Cousins, Prescott and Ben all outscore him by a wide margin. Frank Gore is interesting if we think that the Colts will have to focus on running the ball more without Luck but because I think their offense will struggle and they are a 8.5 dog, I have little interest in going there. Hilton and Moncrief are nothing more than tournament plays without Luck and if they’re going to be popular then they are strong fades in all formats.
For the Steelers, the usual suspects are all in play. Big Ben’s home vs road splits are very real but if that is going to cause people not to play him on a three game slate against a terrible defense, I’m all in. Le’Veon Bell is averaging 20 carries and over eight catches over his last four games so he is the top play of the entire slate regardless of price. Antonio Brown remains the safest WR play of the slate as he gets the favorable matchup against the Colts and has had seven or more catches in five of his last six games.
Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football DFS
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