NFL Week 15 DFS PICKS AND STRATEGY

With only a few weeks left in the regular season, now is when things get even more complicated. While we have a larger sample size of data to work with, we also now have to worry about weather concerns in many games along with teams that have no playoff hopes resting their guys over the next few weeks. Regardless, this week is shaping up to be an excellent week for tournaments as over half the games on the main slate have an over/under of 42 or lower. As always, I will go over three players at each position that I will be targeting along with some of my favorite stacks this week.

 

QB:

 

Derek Carr $6300 DK $7900 FD

Over/Under: 49 OAK – 3

Expected Ownership: 6%

 

Derek Carr is in a great bounce back spot after a miserable performance against the Chiefs last week. The Raiders have the fourth highest team total this week and Carr threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns the first time these teams met earlier this season which was his second best fantasy performance this year. Ownership should be very spread out at QB this week so I expect to get Carr at under 10% and he has one of the highest ceilings of any QB this week.

 

Colin Kaepernick $5800 DK $7500 FD

Over/Under: 51.5 ATL – 14

Expected Ownership: 12%

 

Depending on how much buzz starts to generate for Kaepernick by Sunday, he could end up being one of the most popular QBs of the slate this week. Atlanta has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. Additionally, this game could turn into a track meet like we have witnessed with many games in the Georgia dome this season. I think recency bias has this line a few points higher than it should be. If the Niners have any chance of staying in this game, it will be on the shoulders of their QB. He a monster ceiling in this spot and is a great bargain on DraftKings this week.

 

Joe Flacco $5700 DK $7400 FD

Over/Under: 41 BAL – 5.5

Expected Ownership: 10%

 

Flacco has been crushing the past two weeks (words I never thought I’d say). Over the last two weeks he has thrown for over 700 yards and six TD’s. In fact, over the past five weeks of the season, Flacco is the fourth best fantasy QB behind only Rodgers, Kirk Cousins and Tom Brady. Philadelphia’s secondary has been their weak spot all season and I expect Flacco & co. to take full advantage.

 

RB:

 

David Johnson $10,100 DK $9800 FD

Over/Under: 50.5 ARI – 2.5

Expected Ownership: 30%

 

I should not have to explain why David Johnson is a strong play so I really am not going to go into much detail here. I just wanted to point out that I think this week is when we see the pendulum swing back in favor of David Johnson versus Le’Veon Bell last week. Everyone will most likely move to Bell after the monster performance last week and the difference in salary. That being said, I think DJ’s matchup gives him a much easier path to a ceiling game and should be heavily involved as usual. The Cardinals have the third highest team total on the main slate.

 

LeSean McCoy $8900 DK $9000 FD

Over/Under: 41.5 BUF – 10.5

Expected Ownership: 28%

 

LeSean McCoy is another talented running back in a great spot this week at home vs Cleveland. The Browns have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and the Bills have the fifth highest team total on the main slate this week. McCoy has had gone over 100 yards rushing in two of his last three games and has seven targets in back to back games. If you’re not paying up for DJ or Bell, Shady is a great spot to look this week.

 

Kenneth Dixon $3800 DK $5100 FD

Over/Under: 41 BAL – 5.5

Expected Ownership: 30%

 

I fully expect Dixon to be one of the most popular RB’s come lineup lock on Sunday. Dixon had a big performance against the Patriots on Monday night. He caught eight balls and scored a touchdown but more importantly he dominated the backfield work over Terrance West. While the matchup against the Eagles isn’t great, Dixon has caught at least four balls in four of his last five games. At $3,800 on DraftKings, it’s just too cheap on a week where salary is crucial.

 

WR:

 

Odell Beckham Jr. $8,000 DK $8,600 FD

Over/Under: 41 NYG – 4

Expected Ownership: 12%

 

Much like QB this week, I expect WR ownership to be pretty balanced as opposed to other weeks this season. Beckham is an excellent spot this week at home against the Lions. The Lions rank in the bottom three in DVOA vs the pass. With so many people paying up at RB, it will be tough to see Beckham reach heavy ownership which makes him an excellent tournament play considering the spot he’s in this week.

 

Demaryius Thomas $6,300 DK $6,700 FD

Over/Under: 44 NE – 3

Expected Ownership: 8%

 

I think roster construction will lead to very low ownership for DT this week. Additionally, people will be off Denver’s offense because of the matchup with New England. Lastly, this is sort of a dead zone range of WR’s this week as most people will be going cheap at the position in order to fit in the top tier running backs. For those that will be interested in Denver’s offense, they will most likely look towards Emmanuel Sanders off the monster game last week which makes DT an excellent pivot. Thomas has had at least 10 targets in seven of his last eight games and is third in the NFL in redzone targets on the season.

 

Mike Wallace $4800 DK $5900 FD

Over/Under: 41 BAL – 5.5

Expected Ownership: 7%

 

Mike Wallace is an excellent tournament play this week as he has huge upside especially with the plus matchup against the Eagles. The Eagles give up the second most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing WR’s. We already talked about how Joe Flacco has been slinging it and Mike Wallace has at least 50 yards in five straight games.

 

TE:

 

This is one of the ugliest slates for TE’s that I can remember. You can pay up for the safety of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz or Kyle Rudolph but like we said, this week is very tough to save if you’re playing Bell or DJ. As far as the cheap TE’s go, that’s where it gets very ugly. You can take a chance on Ladarius Green who has been getting more involved in the Steelers offense but I don’t like trusting TE’s who don’t play the majority of snaps especially with Big Ben on the road. Jermaine Gresham has 23 targets over his last three games and is min priced with a good matchup against New Orleans but he is currently listed as questionable with a knee injury so you will have to monitor that. He would be the best choice to punt TE if you’re looking to save at the position this week. That being said, I think the safest build requires you to pay up at TE which reinforces just how tough this week is going to be.

 

My Favorite Stacks:

 

Joe Flacco + Mike Wallace

Joe Flacco + MIke Wallace + Zach Ertz/Jordan Matthews

Derek Carr + Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree

 

Best of luck this week, I’ll see you all at the top of the leaderboards with me!

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Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football DFS

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