NFL DFS Week 17 Picks and Strategy

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have made it to Week 17 and man did it come quickly. The final week of the regular season is always an interesting one to say the least. It is important to understand which teams have a motive to win so we know that they will not be resting their starters. Multiple teams have already confirmed that they are going to rest some players such as the Steelers, Giants and Cowboys. Be sure to keep that in mind during your roster construction this week.

 

QB:

 

Aaron Rodgers $7,700 DK $8,800 FD

Over/Under: 49.5 Green Bay – 3.5
Expected Ownership: 30%

 

Aaron Rodgers will be the most popular QB this week without question. He is coming off a monster game last week, throwing for nearly 350 yards and four touchdowns. This week, he draws a very favorable matchup against the Detroit Lions who are dead last in DVOA vs the pass. Rodgers is one of the safest QB’s on the board but he comes in as the highest priced QB and will draw heavy ownership so keep that in mind during roster construction.

 

Drew Brees $7,600 DK $8,200 FD

Over/Under: 56.5 Atlanta – 6.5

Expected Ownership: 12%

 

I could be wrong here but I expect Drew Brees to be much lower owned than Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan which I think is a big mistake. Nobody feels comfortable playing Drew Brees on the road which is understandable. That being said, this game is in the Georgia dome with the highest over/under of the week. Additionally, Brees has thrown for over 300 yards the last five times he has faced the Falcons including a 376 yard performance earlier this season. He is my favorite tournament QB this week.

 

Matt Barkley $5,100 DK $6,500 FD

Over/Under: 41 Minnesota – 5

Expected Ownership: 20%

 

Matt Barkley’s price across the industry continues to be very enticing. He is no stranger to turnovers as he has thrown eight picks in his last two games. That being said, he has thrown for over 300 and two touchdowns in his last two games and has attempted at least 40 passes in that span. His price allows you to pay up elsewhere and for that reason I expect him to be heavily owned in a favorable matchup against the Vikings. I like him more as a cash game play but he is worth some exposure in tournaments if playing multiple lineups.

 

RB:

 

Devonta Freeman $7,000 DK $8,000 FD
Over/Under: 56.5 Atlanta – 6.5
Expected Ownership: 25%

 

Freeman is another chalky play this week but I would not recommend fading here. Freeman is a home favorite and Atlanta has the highest implied total of the entire slate. Freeman has excellent home splits and New Orleans has given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. With the mess that is the Falcons WR corps, the Falcons’ backfield should be in for a busy week. I will heavy exposure to Freeman in all formats and Tevin Coleman makes for a great hedge as a tournament play.

 

Thomas Rawls $5,800 DK $7,400 FD

Over/Under: 43.5 Seattle – 10

Expected Ownership: 20%

 

The only reason I don’t think Rawls will be the heaviest owned running back is because he was listed as questionable earlier in the week. Since then, he has returned and practice in full on Friday. He is no longer listed on the injury report and has the best matchup on paper against the Niners who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. He is simply way too cheap on DraftKings.

 

Jacquizz Rodgers $4,900 DK $5,200 FD

Over/Under: 46.5 Tampa Bay – 5.5

Expected Ownership: 20%

 

This is a week where there is no need to get cute at RB with so much value and obvious plays. These are the top three running plays this week considering price and matchup. I am not playing David Johnson for that price against the Rams in a meaningless game. That is actually one of the easiest fades in the history of NFL DFS so I am confused why he is getting so much buzz this week but I digress. Rodgers is a plug and play as he is expected to get 20 touches as a home favorite against a Carolina Panthers team that has basically packed their bags this season.

 

WR:

 

Julio Jones $8,400 DK $8,300 FD

Over/Under: 56.5 Atlanta – 6.5

Expected Ownership: 12%

 

With the majority of people stacking Rodgers with Jordy Nelson, I expect Nelson to be the highest owned WR of the slate. Julio Jones is coming off another dud game last week and has been prevented by a nagging toe injury all season. This will surely keep his ownership much less than it should be considering the situation he is in this week. The Falcons need to win and they have a favorable matchup against the Saints with the highest implied total of the week. Additionally, Julio has been removed from the injury report and is expected to be a full go this week. Giddy up!

 

Jordy Nelson $8,100 DK $8,200 FD

Over/Under: 49.5 Green Bay – 3.5

Expected Ownership: 35%

 

Speaking of Jordy Nelson, it is hard to argue with the massive numbers he has been putting up lately. He has nine touchdowns over his last nine games and continues to lead the NFL in Redzone targets this season. He is a lock for cash games but I would strongly consider fading in tournaments due to extremely high ownership. If you’re playing that stack in tournaments, be sure to differentiate your lineups elsewhere as the majority of people will have that same stack.

 

Chris Hogan $3,900 DK $5,100 FD

Over/Under: 44.5 New England – 10

Expected Ownership: 5%

 

This is obviously a tournament play only but Chris Hogan sets up well this week with Malcolm Mitchell listed as doubtful. Additionally, they have already talked about keeping Martellus Bennett’s workload limited this week meaning Edelman and Hogan will carry the load in the passing game. The Dolphins defense has been just brutal in both aspects so I like the upside of a big play guy like Chris Hogan this week.

 

TE:

 

I tried for quite some time to make a case for other tightends this week but it’s just unnecessary. If you’re maxing out a tournament this week, you are better off just playing Travis Kelce across the board. He has gone over 100 yards in five of his last six games and is the safest play at the position. The only other tightend that I can see potentially out scoring him is Jordan Reed so I would suggest getting some exposure if multi entering but that’s it.

 

My Favorite Stacks:

 

Aaron Rodgers + Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams

Aaron Rodgers + Davante Adams/Jordy Nelson + Ty Montgomery

Matt Ryan + Julio Jones (GPP only)

Jameis Winston + Mike Evans

Jameis Winston + Jacquizz Rodgers + Mike Evans

 

That’s all I have this week. I just wanted to say to you that it has been an amazing season and thank you for spending it with us. Best of luck this week!

 

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Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football DFS

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