Because we only have a four game slate, I will run through a brief game-by-game breakdown similar to what we did for the Thanksgiving slate.
Oakland @ Houston
The first game of the day is the Texans vs the Raiders. This game is going to be brutal from an offensive standpoint as both teams have some pretty big question marks surrounding them. The over/under is set at 36.5 points which might honestly be the lowest total that I have ever seen. The Raiders will have Connor Cook making his first ever start in a very crucial game so that almost takes their entire offense out of play for me. On the other side of the ball, Brock Osweiler is just hard to watch and has been all season. I will continue to watch other people flush their money down chasing Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins, hoping that Osweiler will be serviceable to get them the football. The only plays in this entire game are Lamar Miller and Texans D/ST.
Detroit @ Seattle
This game has some sneaky upside and should be the lowest owned game aside from that catastrophe in Houston. For Seattle, Russell Wilson is in a great spot at home against the worst ranked pass defense in terms of DVOA. You have to figure that Rodgers and Big Ben who are both at home, will gather most of the ownership at the QB position leaving Wilson as a high upside cheaper option. If you do go that route, I think you should pair him with Doug Baldwin who has been his primary receiver throughout the season. He only saw four targets last week against the Niners but saw 19 targets the previous week. He should see close to 10 targets in this one as his average is right around eight per game this season.
Additionally, I think you can double stack here with either Jimmy Graham or Paul Richardson who is a screaming bargain across the industry. Richardson has seen at least five targets in back to back games since Tyler Lockett went down and there is little reason to think that changes here. I’m under the impression that Thomas Rawls is not as good as we may have thought coming into this year in terms of talent. He has averaged under two yards per carry over his last three games and is non existent in the passing game which makes him an easy fade this week. Seattle D/ST is surely going to be the most popular and with the volatility of defense, you may be better off pivoting to Pittsburgh or taking a chance on another team that will be low owned as Steelers will be second most popular.
On the Detroit side of the ball, Golden Tate has had six or more catches in five straight games and double digit targets in four of those. He should be lower owned because of the matchup with Seattle but I think he has a pretty safe floor here considering his expected workload. He also has the #Revenge narrative if you’re into that sort of thing. Aside from Tate, I think the only other play in this game is Zach Zenner. He played 100% of the snaps last week and we can expect that to continue this week as he is their most talented back with Riddick out. Zenner is priced at a discount because of the tough matchup but because of his volume and expected low ownership, he is firmly in play this week.
Miami @ Pittsburgh
The big three are all in play here and going to be some of the highest owned of the entire slate. Ben Roethlisberger averaged over 300 yards passing at home this season and Miami’s defense has been very suspect down the stretch. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell should both see a ton of volume and crush this week. It is hard to talk anyone off those guys and it would be foolish to fade Bell no matter the ownership. The only other play here is Jesse James at Tight end. Ladarius Green did not practice Friday and I would be very surprised if he played here. James is priced at a discount across the industry so no need to overthink this if Green sits. I’m staying away from the Miami guys completely. You can let others hope for another 200 game from Jay Ajayi, no thanks.
New York @ Green Bay
This game is going to be a good one from a real football standpoint. The Giants defense has been pretty solid all season long and very solid as of late. It will be very difficult to go into Lambeau and play well but they may be up for the task. Odell Beckham Jr. is going to be a popular play this week as he is tied for second in the NFL in redzone targets to wide receivers this season. Additionally, the Packers have given up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. That is why I believe that Sterling Shepard is a very interesting play if you’re pivoting off of OBJ. He has eight touchdowns this season and he should see six to eight targets in this good matchup at semi-low ownership.
On the Green Bay side, Jordy Nelson has been a beast all year but a popular stat going around is that the Giants contained him last time these teams met in Week 5. He was held to four catches for 38 yards and a touchdown. Because of Jordy’s volume, particularly in the redzone, he is as safe as they come even with the tough matchup. He leads the entire NFL In redzone targets and has nine touchdowns in his last 10 games. On the other side of the field, Davante Adams should be in for a big day if the Giants focus on stopping Jordy so he is worth a look as a high upside guy in tournaments. I am staying far away from Ripkowski and hoping that others will flock to him after the fluke of a game last week. On the same note, Ty Montgomery is no longer in play because of McCarthy’s questionable coaching decision to feature John Kuhn-esque players.
Good Luck this week everybody!
Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football DFS
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