Fantasy Football Live Draft Results 2013: Picks 1-5

So despite having two little kids running around and falling all over the place, one drafter making his choices on speaker phone and a guy who asked what the ESPN ranking was of every single person picked, the only thing more redonkulous then the live draft itself was the actual picks. To say that this league values quarterbacks is the understatement of the century. Depending on the order of picks, Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, and Cam Newtown could all be be gone by the 6th or 7th pick in the first round. I’m not exaggerating.

So knowing that quarterback is pretty deep this year and that I was pretty much going to go running back-running back, I was prepared to try and get Stafford, Luck, or Romo in the 6th round(they were all gone by the beggining of the 7th round in about 90% of my mock drafts). If worse came to worse and they were taken earlier or as backups, I would live with having Eli Manning or just plan on waiting super late and taking Carson Palmer.

Much like life, fantasy football doesn’t always happen like you have it planned out and you have to be able to adjust your plans on the fly. I had the third pick of the draft which comes with some deep meditation and contemplation. Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster went first and second(personally I would have avoided Arian Foster), so for me my choices were between Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice, Jaamal Charles and C.J. Spiller. Like anyone who has been through a bad relationship, I was a little broken and had some trust issues when it came to my number one pick. In 2011-2012 my first pick was Chris Johnson, and the 2012-13 season my first pick was LeSean McCoy. I think Marshawn Lynch is the definition of beast mode, but I don’t feel confident that he warrants a third overall pick. Last year, Marshawn had five games where he scored less than 10 fantasy points in standard ESPN leagues and three games in which he scored thirteen points or less. So out of 17 games, he had eight where he scored thirteen points or less.

I need someone who can consistently give me 80-90 yards rushing and a touchdown, which would be 14-15 points each week for my number one running back. Jaamal Charles could have a great year, but right after my draft he was hurt and was ruled out for the preseason. I am obviously not Nostradamus, but I am too wary of his injuries to ever have him as my third pick. If he would somehow fall late in the second round I may take a chance on him, but that is the only way I would ever draft him. So that leaves Ray Rice and C.J. Spiller. The Bills have said that they are going to give C.J. Spiller the ball until he pukes. Sounds pretty great fantasy wise, especially if you look at the number of carries he had and how he still ended up being a top ten back. At this point I looked at each of the teams. Even though the Ravens have had a lot of moving parts this offseason, they still have more consistency than the Bills. The Bills will have two different quarterbacks playing for them throughout the year, and Fred Jackson has a greater potential to cut into Spiller’s fantasy production than Bernard Pierce does on Ray Rice. With the TE situation a little murky with the Raven’s, as well as missing a clearly defined number two wide receiver, Rice should see an increase in his receiving yards. I wanted consistency, so despite the amount of upside Spiller has, I went with Ray Rice.

So the first three picks of the draft were pretty standard, but the 4th and 8th pick were absolute redonkulousness. I was 100% percent shocked, and I assure you that this is a serious league and these picks were not done as any type of joke.

ROUND 1
1 Adrian Peterson, Min RB  
2 Arian Foster*, Hou RB  
3 Ray Rice, Bal RB  
4 Colin Kaepernick, SF QB  
5 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB  
6 Marshawn Lynch, Sea RB  
7 C.J. Spiller, Buf RB  
8 Russell Wilson, Sea QB  
9 Trent Richardson, Cle RB  
10 Alfred Morris, Wsh RB  
11 Doug Martin, TB RB
12 Drew Brees, NO QB

So not only was the notion that quarterback was extremely deep this year and you could wait on a pick thrown out the window here, two players who might not even make it into the top five fantasy quarterback players, let alone the top ten, were picked in the first round! Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, and Tony Romo all had more points than Russell Wilson last year. Andy Dalton had 20 fewer points than Wilson. Yea. Crazy. This was just absolutely insane, and I loved the value that this was going to open up for me when my draft pick came back around, but I became super panicked when I saw that run on quarterbacks. Four quarterbacks in the first round, and two of them are second year players! I was going to stick with my plan, and bump my 6th round pick plans of Andrew Luck or Tony Romo into the fifth if I had to try and grab them a little early. The second round calmed down a little bit, and started to look like what was happening in most mock drafts.

ROUND 2
13 Jamaal Charles, KC RB  
14 Julio Jones, Atl WR  
15 Calvin Johnson, Det WR  
16 A.J. Green, Cin WR  
17 Andre Johnson, Hou WR  
18 Steven Jackson, Atl RB  
19 David Wilson, NYG RB  
20 Frank Gore, SF RB  
21 Chris Johnson, Ten RB  
22 Stevan Ridley, NE RB  
23 LeSean McCoy, Phi RB  
24 Matt Forte, Chi RB

I think LeSean McCoy should have a good year, and the Bears say that they want to get Forte more involved this year, but those are two guys who I was not willing to put a second round pick on. The Patriots have been looking good in the preseason, and I don’t see any reason why Ridley wouldn’t have another strong year. While everyone always focuses on the Patriots passing game, they were 7th in the NFL in rushing last year, and there is going to be times when Brady isn’t on the same page with his new weapons and the passing will take a back seat to the rushing game.

With the third round coming up I was planning on taking Jimmy Graham or a wide receiver, but I don’t like Demayrius Thomas, Victor Cruz or Wes Welker, and I thought I could wait on Larry Fitzgerald and get him in the fourth. I had Dez Bryant last year and he helped me get into the playoffs, but again the common theme is consistency, and I am worried about Dez staying healthy.

When the third round began, Demayrius Thomas went at the start, and Jimmy Graham was the next one taken off the board. Damn. I began to look at what was available, and I started to look at my flex spot. Instead of taking a wide receiver just because I didn’t have one, I decided to take a player with a high upside in MJD. Just a few seasons removed from some dominating performances, MJD has said that he feels perfectly fine and he is in a contract year that will determine his future in the league. I saw a story a few years back that said every time he has a great performance, MJD cuts out articles about himself and mails them to sports critics and people in his life who doubted him because of his size. He has a ton of heart and determination, so he is someone who is going to be highly motivated to come back this season and show all the haters that he still has something to give. If Ray Rice stays the consistent workhorse that he has been, I have two very explosive players in Ridley and MJD.

25 Demaryius Thomas, Den WR  
26 Jimmy Graham, NO TE  
27 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB  
28 Vernon Davis, SF TE  
29 Dez Bryant, Dal WR  
30 Wes Welker, Den WR  
31 Brandon Marshall, Chi WR  
32 Torrey Smith, Bal WR  
33 Peyton Manning, Den QB  
34 Cam Newton, Car QB  
35 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB  
36 Montee Ball, Den RB

While the second round was pretty normal, Roethlisberger, Torrey Smith, and Vernon Davis were way too early. Roethlisberger isn’t even getting drafted in some leagues. I was pissed about Torrey Smith going so early because I wanted to grab him in the later rounds as a wide receiver 2 or a wide receiver 3. Anytime the Ravens play a bad team, Torrey is going to go off and you can plug him in as needed. Vernon Davis should have went at the earliest in the fourth round. He isn’t Jimmy Graham or Gronk.

So the fourth round was time to get a wide receiver, and I felt pretty confident that Larry would fall to me. Here is what happened to me with the 46th pick.

37 Victor Cruz, NYG WR  
38 Darren McFadden, Oak RB  
39 Le’Veon Bell, Pit RB  
40 Darren Sproles, NO RB  
41 Eddie Lacy, GB RB  
42 Randall Cobb, GB WR  
43 Ryan Mathews, SD RB  
44 Roddy White, Atl WR  
45 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR  
46 Vincent Jackson, TB WR  
47 Lamar Miller, Mia RB  
48 Danny Amendola, NE WR  

One pick before mine! I kept muttering inside my head please don’t take Fitzgerald, please don’t take Fitzgerald. Sadly the fantasy gods did not answer my prayers, so I had to look for someone else. I saw Vincent Jackson in the Raven’s preseason game, and he looks in shape and came down with a nice catch that ended up being ruled out of bounds, but he played physical and this is the year that Josh Freeman has to prove something so he will be looking early and often to Vincent.

I had the third pick in round five, and even though I already had three starting running backs and only one wide receiver, I was thinking of taking Reggie Bush. I think he will fit in well in Detroit, and he had a decent outing in his preseason game with a few rushing yards and some decent receiving yards. Since Torrey Smith was gone, I thought I could wait a few more rounds and have T.Y. Hilton as my number two. Reggie Bush ended up as the first pick of round five. Sometimes things like that will make your picks easier. Dwayne Bowe went next, and when I was about to pull the trigger on Hakeem Nicks, I realized that Tom Brady was still available. Granted, he did go down in practice with a knee injury before my draft, but he also played a preseason game before my draft and looked great, so there wasn’t any good reason why he fell so far. You have to take value where value is had, so I skipped out on Nicks and took Mr.Brady.

ROUND 5
49 Reggie Bush, Det RB  
50 Dwayne Bowe, KC WR  
51 Tom Brady, NE QB  
52 Chris Ivory, NYJ RB  
53 BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin RB  
54 Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR  
55 DeMarco Murray, Dal RB  
56 DeAngelo Williams, Car RB  
57 Rob Gronkowski*, NE TE  
58 Anquan Boldin, SF WR  
59 Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind RB  
60 Reggie Wayne, Ind WR  

So far, this is what my team looks like after round 5

QB-Tom Brady

RB-Ray Rice

RB-Steven Ridley

Flex-MJD

WR-Vincent Jackson

Tomorrow I will give the breakdown of the rest of my draft and show how my team came together.

Make It A Great Day

Captain Jack

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Categories: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Strategy

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