Much like the advanced mathematics that is behind credit default swaps and derivatives in the financial world, I am going to use extreme formulas and algorithms to predict the future of the Patriots…. Ok not really. I went to summer school for math in high school, so you won’t find anything that will leave you scratching your head here. I will breakdown some basic statistics in the passing game to try and make sense out of what we all saw Thursday. All scoring is standard ESPN scoring
Patriots’ Passing Attack
Tom Brady– 19/39(48.71%), 4.7 yards a throw, 1 touchdown
Fantasy Points: 11
While Brady owners are panicking and think this is the end of the world, you have to have actually watched the game to know what was going on. Aaron Dobson was targeted 10 times but only had three catches. He should have caught three or four other passes that Brady threw, including a potential touchdown that hit his feet. So let us say Dobson has four catches and a touchdown, Brady’s numbers go up to 23/39 for two touchdowns. Just from those four catches, Brady’s completion percentage moves up to 58%. Say those receviing yards totaled 25 yards. That adds 1 point to Brady’s fantasy total which would put him at 12, and the missed touchdown opportunity would add 4 more points which puts him at 16. Kenbrell Thompkins had 7 targets and only hauled in two catches. Say he caught two more passes, and one of them was the touchdown he stretched out for but didn’t come down with. Add 50 yards onto Thompkins catches which makes Mr.Brady’s total 18, throw on the touchdown which gives him 22 points, and he has had a decent day with his cast of new characters. Brady’s completetion percentage is now 25/39, which now stands at 64%. Yes, these are a lot of what ifs, but with Gronk coming back and the rookies hopefully learning the offense and making plays, these types of games should be the exception for Brady instead of the norm. You see with how just a few plays going differently, what appeared to be a dismal performance could rapidly improve.
Receivers
CATCH THE BALL! Honestly, there isn’t much that needs to be said here. With Amendola missing 2-6 weeks, and Gronk still out, the Patriots receivers need to start running the right routes and catching the ball in a hurry. The Patriots face some stingy defense in the next couple of weeks, and they will see the Jets again October 20th. Expect things to get better when Gronk comes back, but he can’t catch all the passes. Thompkins only caught 28% of his targets, Dobson caught 30% of his, and Eldelman was reliable catching 72% of his targets. Another way to look at this is that Thompkins missed 72% of his targets and Dobson missed 70% of his. Combined, Dobson and Thompkins missed 142% of the targets that Tom Brady threw their way! This mess needs sorted out ASAP.
Stevan Ridley is the player I would be most focused on, but when things start clicking Tom Brady will still end up a reliable fantasy option. The fantasy season is short, but one game isn’t going to define a players season. Watch the games, follow the stats, and make the choice that you feel gives you the best opportunity to win. That is all you can do.
Good luck in week 2!
Captain Jack
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