Over a month ago I wrote an article saying that it was time to give up on Tavon Austin. I went to WVU, so I was lucky enough to see him play in person and I am a huge supporter of anyone from WVU who makes it into the NFL. He is incredibly talented, but the Rams just haven’t found a consistent way to get him involved with the offense. Now that he has been making some noise these past two weeks, most fantasy owners are wary of whether to pick him up or repick him up. I think that most veteran fantasy players are avoiding Tavon, but some people just don’t know what they should do with him.
I think the easiest way to break it down is like this. Lets say Joe goes out to the bar every Friday, and at the beginning of the month and the middle, he normally gets 1 girls number. He gets two girls numbers a month, so he has a 50% success rate of getting a girls number. Well lets say for some reason he is killing it one month and he is getting two numbers every single Friday he goes out for an entire month! He is riding such a hot streak that he thinks he could even double or triple the numbers he gets next month. When next month rolls around, he doesn’t get a single number. All these young ladies have held one of their secret universal women’s meetings and they talk about how Joe is playing the field. His production is equal to his confidence. Nadda. So we have yet another month roll around and guess what? Joe gets a number again! Maybe this girl was from out of town and didn’t attend the meeting, and Joe finds himself getting another number in the middle of the month as well. You are back to your usual production, and things are more likely than not to stay like that. I would bet that Joe may have a weird month here or there, but that he is normally going to get two numbers a month.
Sometimes we go on unbelievable runs, but other times any of us can go on unbelievable lows and it seems like the entire universe is conspiring against us. While there are a ton of outliers that can help contribute to these factors, things will almost always return to a consistency. When they don’t, that is when you have to look at certain aspects like injuries, weather, and all the other aspects of an NFL game.
With the playoffs upon us, I will present some numbers that should help owners decide whether to play or even pick him up.
Games With 0 Points- 4
Games With 1-4 Points– 4
Right there, Tavon has scored 4 or fewer points in 8 games. That means he is scoring 4 points or fewer in 72% of the games he has played.
Despite his massive numbers the past two weeks, he has a combined total of 4 receptions. Yes he returns kicks and can be involved in the running game, but here is the question you have to ask yourself. Are you going to bet on a playoff game that Tavon can score you more than 4 points? Do you love that 28% chance of him scoring more than 4 points? Or do you think what most likely will happen is what happens 72% of the time for Tavon?
Do you think Tavon will continue these numbers and have huge games? Will he return to his normal 4 or less points a week, or will he become more stable and find a more consistent role in the offense? Let us know!
Categories: Fantasy Football