The name of Dennis Pitta has been floating out of the mouth’s of fantasy experts for several weeks now, but many owners may be wondering what the big deal is. He isn’t a Graham or a Gronk, and the Ravens are only ranked 20th in passing yards, so why would he be worth a start?
Here are some quick facts from the 2012 season
– Pitta finished 2012 as the 7th highest scoring tight end in ESPN standard leagues
– Tied with Antonio Gates, Pitta had the 6th most touchdowns among tight ends with 7
– Pitta ranked 11th in receiving yards with 669, and he was tied for the 10th most targets among tight ends
– In 2012, Pitta saw a huge increase in his yards per game(41.8) compared to 2011(25.3)
Fantasy owners are often wondering what some of the logic is behind the excitement of certain players, and while Pitta is not a household name, I hope that some of these numbers show why fantasy experts were expecting big things from the Baltimore tight end
Categories: Fantasy Football
I will agree with you that Pitta had a good season last year but its hard to bank on similar numbers now that he’s back. Ray Rice’s numbers were fantastic last year and many expected a repeat performance this year but that obviously didnt happen. With the state of the current Ravens team, its hard to know if Pitta can be as effective
You are absolutely right that it is always a dangerous assumption to think that just because someone had a good season the year before, that the player would replicate or improve on their numbers the following year.
It was interesting that you brought up Rice because he actually had his worst season since his rookie season last year regarding his rushing yards, his rushing yards per game, receptions, receiving yards, and his average receiving yards per game. I think Rice is on the other side of the spectrum where analysts saw his numbers declining, but instead of thinking they would continue to decline they thought he would have a similar or better year next season. That does add to the point though that just because a normally strong performer starts to see his numbers decline, it does not guarantee that he would have any sort of bounce back year. In no way did Rice have a bad season last year, but his decline in some of the areas I mentioned above were very significant.
Even though Anquan Boldin didn’t have the biggest year last year, he was huge to the success of the Ravens on third downs and had the best hands on the team. Pitta can not fully replace that, but his 11 targets in Week 14 show that Flacco will looking to Pitta often. The Ravens face the the 25th pass defense of the Lions and the 16th pass defense of the Patriots, so with the amount of targets in Week 14, one could use those numbers to predict that Pitta could be worth a start on your team.
Obviously if you have Jimmy Graham you aren’t going to sit him for Pitta, but if you were hit with the loss of Gronk or have a tight end that has been under performing, Pitta appears to be a solid replacement.
Assuming anything in fantasy football can be the difference between a win and a loss though, and people should def. form their own analysis and opinions and not just think someone will have a good season because of previous year numbers. As Jerry Seinfeld once said, “I never assume, it leads to assumptions’.
Thanks for the comment!