The New England Patriots defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 28-21 in Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season.
Since this is the first game of the year for fantasy football players, there are going to be a ton of people who overreact to the results from this game. Take a deep breath. Don’t panic. There is still a lot of fantasy football left to play.
First Overreaction: Run to the waiver wire and grab Heath Miller.
Don’t do it. Last season, the Patriots allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends with an average of 13.5 points. In PPR leagues, he scored 16.4 points which is 2.9 points more than the average.
Last season, Bell averaged 5.18 receptions per game. Williams only caught one pass which was four less then what Bell hauled in as an average in each game in 2014, but Miller totaled eight receptions which was 3.88 more than his 4.12 average from 2014. Less looks in the passing attack for a running back and Martavis Bryant serving a four-game suspension helped Miller see that increase.
Don’t expect Miller to see a huge role after Week 2. Keep him on waivers or trade him while he is hot.
Second Overreaction: Markus Wheaton will have a better game next week. I’ll still start him.
— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2015
It never made sense why Ben Roethlisberger said that Wheaton would have a big season. Wheaton has almost the same exact build as Antonio Brown, so he doesn’t serve as enough of a compliment to offer additional value in the passing attack. Bryant, however, is 6-foot-4, put on 10 pounds of muscle to get to be 220 pounds, trained in MMA to get stronger and ran in sand to keep his burst. That is a guy who is going to have a breakout year. He got hit with that four-game suspension, so Roethlisberger’s comments started to make sense.
Since Wheaton is only 5-foot-11 and 182 pounds, it also makes sense that Miller would see more work as one of the bigger targets on the field. Even though San Francisco saw a mass exodus this offseason of talent on both sides of the field, they did allow the eighth-fewest points to receivers in 2014. Don’t expect Wheaton to add much more value in the next few weeks. Sell now to desperate owners who believe in him or need more receiver depth.
Third Overreaction: Ben Roethlisberger will still be in the top ten for fantasy quarterbacks at the end of the year. It’s just one game.
Roethlisberger has been way over hyped by a lot of writers and fans. He had two games where he threw six touchdowns last season. That inflated his numbers way too much, but people just didn’t seem to care. He’s going to fall outside the back part of the top 10 into a range between 12-15.
Fourth Overreaction: Julian Edelman is going to see 12 targets every game.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 11, 2015
Nope. Last season, Edelman saw 10 or more receptions in seven out of 14 games. That means in the other seven games he saw less than ten, and you can see a big difference in his production when he saw less work.
Edelman recorded four touchdowns in 2014, but three out of four of his touchdowns occurred when he saw 10 or more targets. He’s a target to move the ball down the field, but Gronkowski or one of the other tight ends are the guys Brady will look for in the end zone. He finished 2014 as the 17th-ranked wide receiver in PPR leagues, and he will most likely continue that trend for 2015 Fantasy Football leagues. Because of his ADP generally falling to Round 4 or Round 5 he is a very nice pickup, but he’s not going to have performances like this against more challenging defenses.
Don’t overreact to the first game in Week 1.
Categories: 2015 Fantasy Football