Week 3 Lineup Advice for DraftKings

Each week, I will identify my top plays for cash games and GPPs and will include expected ownership percentage, which I believe is a very underrated aspect of DFS tournaments.

QB:

Russell Wilson $7000
O/U 43.5 SEA – 14.5
Expected Ownership: 10.8%

Russell Wilson’s price this week is way too tempting. At $7000, he is only the 9th most expensive at the position. I think he is in a great spot this week with a very favorable matchup at home against a banged up Bears team. Chicago’s defense hasn’t been able to stop anything this season and now with Clausen at QB, the offense will continue to struggle to keep their defense off the field. Seattle is projected to be the 2nd highest scoring team this week according to Vegas and you can expect Wilson to be very effective both in the air and on the ground.

Ryan Fitzpatrick $5100
O/U 46 NYJ – 2.5
Expected Ownership: 7.5%

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s price makes him the 3rd cheapest starting quarterback for this week’s slate. The Jets open up as a favorite at home this week against the Eagles. Anytime a team has to play against the Eagles, you can expect their pace to be quicker than usual so you can assume they will run more plays. I think Fitzpatrick is almost an automatic play this week at his cheap price tag. I really can’t see a scenario that he doesn’t reach value against Philly and his price allows you to pay up at other positions. He is a must play this week in my book.

Other than Wilson and Fitzpatrick, I also like Andrew Luck as a contrarian play in what I think will be a big bounce back game for him against Tennessee. I also like Nick Foles at his cheap price against the Steelers who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing QB’s so far this season.

RB:

Darren Sproles $3800
O/U 46 PHI + 2.5
Expected Ownership: 6.2%

At this time, we do not know if Murray will play against New York due to the hamstring injury suffered in practice. Whether Murray plays or not, I think Sproles is the play here. That New York defense is legit and tough to run on. At this point, Eagles wouldn’t be able to run the ball against a bad defensive team either but that is a conversation for another day. I could see Sproles being very involved this week in the passing game. Look for them to use Sproles more this week as he only got 5 touches compared to the 12 in week one. Bradford loves his short passes and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get Sproles involved in many different ways against New York. If Murray doesn’t play, I like Sproles even more but so will everyone else so his ownership should spike. Keep that in mind for GPPs this week.

James Starks $3000
O/U 49 GB – 7
Expected Ownership: Chalk

The only way I can see Starks not being a chalk play this week is if Lacy’s status is still up in the air when lineups lock. With Lacy sidelined the majority of last week’s games, Starks had 20 carries for 95 yards and also added 4 catches out of the backfield. Kansas City is not an ideal matchup but it is pretty much impossible to find more value in any pick this week. Expects Starks to be highly involved this week and at his price, he should easily exceed value.

Lynch and Charles seem to be the obvious plays at RB this week. Aside from them I will also have some exposure to Joseph Randle and Latavius Murray. I think this is a week where you can either go cheap at RB or pay up for them and be happy with your roster construction either way. it all depends on what you planning on doing with the other positions.

WR:

Brandon Marshall $6200
O/U 46 NYJ – 2.5
Expected Ownership: Chalk

Without a doubt, I expect Brandon Marshall to be the highest owned WR this week. Whether or not Decker plays, Marshall is in a great spot this week. That Philly secondary is arguably among the worst in the NFL. Marshall has had at least 6 catches and a touchdown in each of the Jets first two games and I wouldn’t expect that streak to end against an Eagles defense that has really struggled against WR1’s.

Cole Beasley $3300
O/U 45 DAL + 2
Expected Ownership: 4.3%

Beasley was owned by just 7.45% in last week’s milly maker. After a disappointing showing, I expect even less people to be on Beasley this week against Atlanta. One of the main reasons I like Beasley this week aside from his cheap price tag, is because Trufant will mainly be lined up against Terrance Williams on the outside. With Beasley running primarily out of the slot, he should be able to get more than a few looks from Weeden against a less than stellar defense.

Demaryius Thomas is another guy that is growing on me as the week goes on. At $8000, he seems to be quietly shaping up for a big game in what looks to be a shootout against Detroit. Him and Calvin could go overlooked this week as everyone is expected to be on Antonio and Julio once again. I will also have some exposure to Kendall Wright, Doug Baldwin, and Donte Moncrief.

TE:

Greg Olsen $4800
O/U 45 CAR -3
Expected Ownership: 10.6%

These kind of opportunities are the ones that I really enjoy. After laying an egg week one when he was highly owned, Olsen left a bad taste in many owner’s mouths. This was pretty clear after being one of the highest TE’s in week one and seeing his ownership drop to just 5.9% in the milly last week. Olsen did have a solid bounce back with 6 catches for 70 yards last week but failed to get in the endzone so he is not going to be super high owned this week. What I really like about Olsen is the 14 targets he got on Sunday. Yep, 14 targets!!!!!!!!!! If he gets double digit targets again on Sunday against the Saints, it is hard to see him not finishing among the top at the position.

Jared Cook $2800
O/U 47.5 STL + 1
Expected Ownership: 3.8%

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Jared Cook is sneakily one of the best PPR TE’s considering his price each week. At just $2800, Cook just needs 8.4 fantasy points to reach value and he has exceeded that in both games so far this season. He has had 5 catches in both of the Rams first two games and there is no reason to think that changes this week against a very weak Pittsburgh defense in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the week.

I guess I am kind of #TeamFadeGronk in tournaments this season. So far, it has yet to really work out but If this game gets out of hand quickly, Gronk could see limited action in the second half. Olsen and Cook are basically my only plays at TE this week. Although you can probably talk me into some Travis Kelce on Monday Night’s game.

D/ST:

Seattle Seahawks $3400
O/U 43.5 SEA – 14.5
Expected Ownership: Chalk

The Seahawks D/ST will primarily be my only play at this position. The Seahawks have a very affordable price this week in a very juicy matchup. They have a home game against Jimmy Clausen and the Bears….you can probably see where I’m going with this.

My Top Stacks:

Ryan Fitzpatrick – Brandon Marshall
Russell Wilson – Doug Baldwin
Andrew Luck – TY Hilton/Donte Moncrief
Nick Foles – Jared Cook (GPP only)

My Top Fades:

Tom Brady
LeVeon Bell
Jarvis Landry
Tyler Eifert
Arizona Cardinals D/ST

BOLD PREDICTION: The winning lineup in this week’s Milly Maker tournament will have no Patriot’s players on their roster!

If you live under a rock and don’t already have a DraftKings account, sign up using my link and deposit just $5 and you get a free $20 entry into this week’s millionaire maker where the winner will take home $2 million dollars!

Best of luck to everyone playing this week!

Love (or Hate) my picks? Tweet me and let me know!

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Categories: 2015 Fantasy Football

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