Each week, I will identify my top plays for cash games and GPPs and will include expected ownership percentage, which I believe is a very underrated aspect of DFS tournaments.
DraftKings Quarterbacks: Week 4
Andrew Luck $7800
O/U 48 IND – 10
Expected Ownership: 9.2%
Andrew Luck owners… pic.twitter.com/UhLebBxspn
— CBS Sports Fantasy (@CBSFantasy) September 27, 2015
With all of the talk about Luck’s failure to take care of the football with all those turnovers, people are starting to forget that he is a great Fantasy QB. I expect Luck’s ownership to spike a bit based on the matchup, but he was under 5% in most games last week so I still think you will get him for under 10% this week even in a favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Luck torched Jacksonville in the two games they played last season, throwing for a combined 623 yards and 5 TDs with no interceptions. This is great spot for a Luck – T.Y. Hilton stack that could potentially be low owned in a game that is the second-highest O/U of Week 4.
Sam Bradford $6000
O/U 45 PHI -3
Expected Ownership: 4.3%
— Rob Tornoe (@RobTornoe) September 27, 2015
People were very quick to jump ship on Bradford and the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense as a whole. I am not one of those people. Whether it is my love for the Eagles’ offense or my faith in the Washington Redskins being a terrible football team, I still love Bradford in Week 4.
Believe it or not, Washington is a very tough team to run against. The run game has obviously not been the strong point for the Eagles so far this season. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that there will be a lot of passing in this game. At only $6000, I can’t see a scenario where Bradford doesn’t hit value this week. I will be rolling with him in cash games and tournaments for the fact that his ownership will be much lower than it should be.
At QB this week, Aaron Rodgers will be the highest owned QB without a doubt. Rodgers will be mostly a fade for me in tournaments but I am definitely okay with him in cash games against that putrid San Francisco 49ers’ defense. Aside from those players, I will also have some exposure to Tyrod Taylor and Cam Newton.
DraftKings Running Backs: Week 4
Melvin Gordon $4900
O/U 44.5 SD – 7.5
Expected Ownership: 6.7%
— Michael Gehlken (@UTgehlken) September 30, 2015
While most Fantasy players are on Danny Woodhead for PPR purposes, Gordon has been very under the radar. Despite not having a huge Fantasy game yet this season, Gordon has been running the ball very well. Gordon has been a victim to bad game script at times this season, but I don’t expect that to be the case in Week 4. The San Diego Chargers are favorited by a touchdown, and the Cleveland Browns’ defense has given up the third-most Fantasy points to opposing RBs through the first three weeks of the season.
Karlos Williams $3400
O/U 45.5 BUF – 5.5
Expected Ownership: 18.5%
— Buffalo Bills (@buffalobills) September 30, 2015
Williams is expected to be a chalk play with LeSean McCoy likely to miss the Week 4 matchup against the New York Giants. That being said, whenever you can get a player with this much of a ceiling and opportunity at such a cheap price tag, you have to capitalize on it. Williams has scored double-digit Fantasy points in each game this season despite being restricted to mainly goal-line touches. At $3400, he should anchor your cash game lineups and I am okay with peppering him into some GPPs as well.
Aside from these two RBs, I also really like Matt Forte this week against the Oakland Raiders. You will likely get him for under 10% ownership. I could honestly see him having 20-25 touches this week.
I also will have some shares of Frank Gore against Jacksonville and Joseph Randle against the New Orleans Saints. Aside from Forte, I think this is a great week to fade the top-tier Fantasy backs.
DraftKings Wide Receivers: Week 4
DeAndre Hopkins $7300
O/U 47 HOU + 6.5
Expected Ownership: 8.7%
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) September 28, 2015
Hopkins has had double-digit targets each week this season and is coming off an eight catch, 100-yard game last week. That being said, I still don’t think people consider him an elite play and for that reason, I think his ownership will stay under 10% even in a favorable matchup. Also, for those worried that Arian Foster might return and hinder all the targets for Hopkins, think again. If anything, Foster returning will help the defense focus on the run game and give Hopkins more opportunities down the field. I consider Hopkins the top WR play this week. All the Hopkins!!!
Mike Evans $6400
O/U 39.5 TB + 3
Expected Ownership: 4.1%
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@TBBuccaneers) September 27, 2015
Evans left a bad taste in owner’s mouths after Weeks 1 and 2 but followed it up with a 20-point performance last week against Houston. That being said, nobody is talking about the 17 targets that Evans received in his first full game back. Whenever a guy is getting that many targets, you need to take notice. I realize the matchup isn’t ideal against Josh Norman and company, but Evans has such a high ceiling and if he is getting that many targets, I would be surprised to see him not reach value and then some on Sunday.
Other WR’s I like this week are Julio Jones, Jordan Matthews, Randall Cobb and Amari Cooper. I will be primarily fading Calvin Johnson as the matchup is obviously not good and Larry Fitzgerald in tournaments for his insanely high ownership. You could definitely talk me into some Allen Robinson and even Ted Ginn Jr.
DraftKings Tight Ends: Week 4
Greg Olsen $5400
O/U 39.5 CAR – 3
Expected Ownership: Chalk
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLfantasy) September 29, 2015
Olsen will be a huge chalk play but with almost nobody else catching passes in Carolina, it is hard to fade him this week. He is coming off 25 targets in the past two weeks and now he gets another favorable matchup against Tampa Bay. With a banged up Jonathan Stewart, I could easily see Olsen receiving 13-15 targets.
Jordan Reed $4500
O/U 45 WAS + 3
Expected Ownership: 11.6%
— Washington Redskins (@Redskins) September 28, 2015
Reed has quietly been one of the safest TE plays all season. He has at least six catches and 60 yards in each game this season, but his price is yet to go above $5000. This week, Reed has a great matchup against the Eagles in what should be a high scoring game with Washington playing from behind. You can’t beat Reed at his price.
DraftKings Defenses: Week 4
Philadelphia Eagles $2700
O/U 45 PHI – 3
Expected Ownership: 5.1%
I feel like this is a week where your D/ST guess is as good as mine. However, the Eagles are very intriguing this week as they will face turnover prone Kirk Cousins. Also, Washington has one of the worst special teams in the NFL so I am on board with double dipping Darren Sproles and Eagles D/ST this week.
My Top Stacks for Week 4:
Sam Bradford – Jordan Matthews
Andrew Luck – TY Hilton
Cam Newton – Greg Olsen
Aaron Rodgers – Randall Cobb (cash only)
My Top Fades for Week 4:
BOLD PREDICTION: Andrew Luck will be the number one fantasy QB this week!
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Best of luck to everyone playing this week!
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Categories: 2015 Fantasy Football