2015 Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Jimmy Graham

For Week 6, we have a special guest post from Sameer of Fantasy Bandwagon.

2015 Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Jimmy Graham

By Sameer Haji, Owner of Fantasy Bandwagon

It’s no secret that the ex-New Orleans Saints star is having a poor season. The three time Pro-Bowler is averaging a mediocre 6.5 fantasy points a game in standard leagues, which ranks 16th in the league amongst tight ends. A large part of that is because he sees less than 6 targets a game.

His 5.6 targets a game ranks him 18th in the league.

Just to put that into perspective, he saw almost 9 targets a game from 2011-2014. I’m not saying that targets translate into fantasy points but targets certainly do help. It’s no coincidence that he ranked both third in targets and fantasy points last year among tight ends.

The main reason why the Seattle Seahawks brought Graham in was to help bolster the passing attack. The Seahawks were the best rushing team last year and were a bottom-5 passing team. That’s what happens when you have no significant receiving threats and have Marshawn Lynch in your backfield. The addition of Graham was supposed to help balance out the offense, but that has clearly not been the case so far this season. Do you want to know why? Yes, you guessed it. Targets.

Last year, Seattle threw the ball 48% of the time. They were one of two teams to run the ball more often than throwing it. This year, they’ve seen that number creep up a bit to 54%, but that still has them within the bottom 10 in the league. With the Seahawks 2-3 on the year, Pete Carroll must be thinking of changing things up.

Graham owners have been begging for Russell Wilson to throw the ball to him more and that might happen for a few games, but I think ultimately the Seahawks will end up going back to what made them good. They are a running team that plays world championship calibre defense. With Beast Mode looking to return back to the lineup this Sunday after missing the last two games, it gives Carroll even more of a reason to run some more.

If you are a Graham owner, my recommendation would be to sell him if you can still salvage some value. My reason is not that he is declining as a player but more so the role that is given to him.

His Catch Rate of 75% is pretty respectable and only 3 other tight ends have more touchdowns than he does through 5 weeks. It is pretty apparent that he can still offer fantasy production, but until Carroll can get him some more chances to make plays, Graham will continue to be a “square peg in a round hole”.

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Categories: 2015 Fantasy Football

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