Starting Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns

There are a lot of fantasy players who search for the term “starting two wide receivers on the same team”.

I actually drafted three teams in 2013 with two wide receivers on the same team. You can check out the results here, but I came away with a mixed bag of results.

You see, there are offenses that can support two productive players in terms of fantasy production. The Denver Broncos have had their fair share of troubles this season, but in Week 2, Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas were both worth starting in your lineup.

Player Week Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns
Demaryius Thomas 2 8 116 0
Emmanuel Sanders 2 8 87 2

In PPR leagues, that would have netted you a total of 48.3 points.

I realize a lot of fantasy players probably didn’t draft both players at the start of the year. A lot of this will apply to daily fantasy leagues like DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft.

But, you may have drafted Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in the beginning of the year and still own both. Or, you’ve added Robinson to your daily lineups only to watch Hurns get most of the fantasy points.

This is a pretty unique situation. The Jacksonville Jaguars don’t even have an offense that is anywhere close to that of the Broncos, Green Bay Packers or New England Patriots. But, you are also seeing two receivers providing explosive results for the Oakland Raiders with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

This largely relates to how poor the defenses are for Oakland and Jacksonville. The Raiders’ defense is currently allowing an average of 27 points per game. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense is allowing 26.75 points per game, but keep in mind that average does include the Patriots scoring 51 points.

These teams are placed in positions where the quarterback just needs to throw a ton. This produces volatility from week-to-week in terms of who Carr and Bortles will connect with, but it also can produce a lot of fantasy production for receivers.

For instance, Bortles has the fourth-most passing attempts in the NFL through Weeks 1-4 with 156. Carr is in the top 20 for passing attempts.

Bottles will constantly be in a position where he needs to throw the ball a ton to keep the Jaguars in the game, and that only benefits Hurns and Robinson. It’s important to note that the second-year quarterback has targeted Robinson more than Hurns, but each receiver has similar stats entering Week 5.

Player Targets Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns
Allen Robinson 41 15 330 2
Allen Hurns 30 22 314 2

You may be surprised to hear this, but Robinson and Hurns actually rank in the top 15 for receiving yards so far this season.

But, should you start each receiver if you have them? Should you target each receiver in your daily leagues?

Here’s the problem with starting two wide receivers; your taking a big hit if neither receiver has a productive game. The Jaguars could get in a super close matchup where there isn’t much action going on and Hurn and Robinson could net you a low point total. Or, you have the other extreme where Jacksonville somehow jumps ahead of an opponent early and T.J. Yeldon spends most of the day running out the clock.

That’s the major risk you run with starting two wide receivers from the same team. It’s like only owning stock in Facebook and Twitter. If the technology sector is up as a whole, then you’re going to see profit. If the technology sector is down, however, you are going to watch your profits disappear. You need to diversify.

I’m not saying that there won’t be weeks where each receiver is productive. The targets make Robinson a better start. It’s simple math that the more targets a player sees, the more chances a player has to earn fantasy points through receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns.

Hurns saw two receptions in Week 3 but jumped to 11 in Week 4. Robinson, on the other hand, saw four a piece between Weeks 3-4, and he caught six passes the week before that.

One of Hurns’ receptions in Week 3 was a touchdown, so that means 50% of the passes he caught resulted in a touchdown. Those statistics that can’t be repeated as volume increases, and just imagine what would have happened that week if he only caught two passes and didn’t score a touchdown.

If you like the amount of passing attempts Bortles has each week, then these two receivers do have appeal for daily. If you’re trying to win your season long league, however, diversify your lineup. Stick with Robinson.

Remember, Julius Thomas will be back soon and that could be a catalyst to alter Hurn’s red-zone looks.

Categories: 2015 Fantasy Football

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