Each week, I will identify my top plays for DraftKings cash games and GPPs. I will also include expected ownership percentage, which I believe is a very underrated aspect of DFS tournaments.
Week 5 DraftKings Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan $6700
O/U 47.5 ATL – 7.5
Expected Ownership: 8.2%
Matt Ryan went for 203 first half passing yards, he’s 10.8% owned in the Millionaire Maker! https://t.co/T1UJrAe0rY
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) September 15, 2015
I am hoping last week’s numbers, along with the enormous hype on Devonta Freeman, will keep Matty Ice and Julio Jones ownership lower than usual this week. The Atlanta Falcons haven’t had to rely on Ryan’s arm recently, but I expect that to change this week against the Washington Redskins. I am all over the Ryan – Julio stack this week. The Falcons are the favorites at home and have a favorable matchup against a suspect secondary… Need I say more?
Phillip Rivers $6200
O/U 45.5 SD – 3
Expected Ownership: 7.1%
— ESPN Monday Night (@ESPNMondayNight) October 7, 2015
For whatever reason, it seems like people forget about the players on Monday night. Don’t be one of those fantasy players this week. Rivers has a very favorable matchup against a Pittsburgh Steelers’ secondary that has proved to be one of the worst in the league so far this season. Even if he has no Stevie Johnson or Malcolm Floyd this week, I expect Rivers to pick apart the Pittsburgh’s vanilla defense with Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates. Rivers is coming off a 350 yard, three-touchdown game last week and at his price, he is a great bet to surpass value this week.
I believe this is the first week of the season where I really like multiple QBs and will be playing more than five. Aside from Rivers and Ryan, I will also be on Aaron Rodgers, Sam Bradford, Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles. Although, those guys are more geared towards tournament lineups being lower owned and more risk/reward.
I would not be surprised one bit to see all of those guys in the top 10 at their position this week. For what it’s worth, I think Rodgers is in a great bounce back spot at home against the St. Louis Rams who have really struggled against slot receivers. I will be targeting the Rodgers – Randall Cobb stack heavily this week.
Week 5 DraftKings Running Backs
Todd Gurley $4300
O/U 45.5 GB – 10
Expected Ownership: 23.8%
— Bill Enright (@BillEnright) October 7, 2015
Gurley should be a pretty popular play this week after his breakout game against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4. Gurley rushed for 146 yards off 19 carries against a tough Arizona run defense. At his cheap price tag, it is tough not to anchor him in cash games and tournaments even with the expected higher ownership percentage. He should almost be considered an auto-play in Week 5.
Le’Veon Bell $8500
O/U 45.5 PIT + 3
Expected Ownership: 13.8%
Le’Veon Bell’s cumulative Plus/Minus (points above salary-based expectation) on DraftKings in 2014… pic.twitter.com/f8M9R4xYQw
— Jonathan Bales (@BalesFootball) August 25, 2015
Whenever a running back is pretty much guaranteed 20 carries and 5 + catches, he should be in all your lineups. Everybody knows how consistently dominant that Bell is at the running back position. That being said, because of Bell’s expensive price tag, I expect his ownership to be somewhat lower than usual despite the very favorable matchup against the Chargers. Bell has had seven catches in both of his games back so far this season and with Michael Vick subbing in for Ben Roethlisberger, you can expect the dump offs to continue. Bell is a great anchor in cash and tournaments this week.
Aside from Bell and Gurley, I will also have some shares of Justin Forsett against the Cleveland Browns, Matt Forte, Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles (revenge game narrative) and one or two obligatory Melvin Gordon shares.
Week 5 DraftKings Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham Jr. $9000
O/U 43 NYG – 6.5
Expected Ownership: 10.2%
Incomplete, but the Odell Beckham, Jr. catch was still ridiculous. pic.twitter.com/DqhwvUF9Vo
— Steve Noah (@Steve_OS) October 4, 2015
After being held to just five catches for 38 yards against the Buffalo Bills last week, this is a great spot to roster Bekcham Jr. in what should be a big, bounce back game. Add in the fact that the majority of people paying up will take Julio Jones against the Redskins and I think that will leave Beckham Jr.’s ownership around 10%. I consider that a huge win.Beckham had 12 targets last week and if he gets anywhere close to that (no reason he shouldn’t), you better believe the San Francisco 49ers’ secondary will have their hands full on Sunday Night Football.
Keenan Allen $7200
O/U 45.5 SD – 3
Expected Ownership: King Chalk
If Johnson and Floyd are both sidelined for Monday night as expected, Keenan Allen will be a very popular play but for good reason. Allen has already had games with 17 and 18 targets so far this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get another 15 against the Steelers. We have already talked about how bad the Steelers secondary is and with the expected huge workload for Allen, it is hard not to roster him in cash games.
Another wide receiver that I really like is Cobb against the St. Louis Rams. The Rams have struggled all season with slot receivers and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. They have a great pass rush, but Rodgers is one of the best in the league at picking apart defenses with minimal time. I expect the Packers to do most of their scoring through the air and with Cobb heavily involved. I also really like Allen Robinson against that Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense that is just bad. You can also talk me into some Kamar Aiken, Martavius Bryant, Michael Floyd and Willie Snead as they are all cheap options at wide receiver. I expect to get some respectable volume this week.
Week 5 DraftKings Tight Ends
I think this is a funny week at tight end where I really don’t feel comfortable with much. If you can afford Rob Gronkowski, I highly suggest you get him into your lineups. If not, the only other guys that I will have exposure to will be Martellus Bennett, Richard Rodgers and Owen Daniels. Let me make one thing clear; I do not feel comfortable with any of these not named Gronkowski.
— NFLUK (@NFLUK) September 30, 2015
Week 5 DraftKings Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore Ravens $2900
O/U 43 BAL – 6.5
Expected Ownership: 7.5%
The Ravens D/ST is a strong play this week being that they have one of the best matchups on the board against Josh McCown and the Cleveland Browns. I really don’t trust Cleveland’s offense to get much going against most teams, and the Ravens have a solid defensive unit that should give McCown some trouble. I am not expecting anything crazy from them but with not many great plays at the position this week, they are a safe bet to be a top-five option in Week 5.
Top Stacks for Week 5:
Matt Ryan – Julio Jones
Philip Rivers – Keenan Allen
Aaron Rodgers – Randall Cobb (GPP)
Sam Bradford – Jordan Matthews (GPP)
Blake Bortles – Allen Robinson (GPP)
Top Fades for Week 5:
Seattle Seahawks D/ST
BOLD PREDICTION: Allen Robinson will be a top five fantasy wide receiver this week!!!
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Best of luck to everyone playing this week!
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Categories: 2015 Fantasy Football