2016 Fantasy Football: A Review of 5 Quarterback ADP Values

At the start of any Fantasy Football season, running back and wide receiver values tend to fluctuate. That’s because we get more reports as the summer progresses on who could be in for a big season, who is disappointing, and who the Fantasy Football community should start adding to their sleeper lists.

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But in terms of quarterback, ADP data in May or June tends to roughly be the same in August and September. With quarterbacks, we are all pretty set in our opinions of who is a stud and who is a dud.

The only thing that would really change a quarterback’s ADP is an injury or suspension.

So today, the staff of Your Fantasy Football Coach wanted to take a look at the ADP of five different quarterbacks for the 2016 Fantasy Football Season.

All of the ADP data we use is courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com.

Cam Newton ADP: 3.08 

Jack Delaney- @YourFFCoach

Cam Newton is overvalued this season because of what Mark Cuban calls FOMO (fear of missing out). Last season, you could draft Newton in Round 10 or even later. I outlined here why he was going be the Andrew Luck of 2015 Fantasy Football leagues, but he doesn’t offer that same type of value in 2016.

There’s two reasons I’m avoiding him this year:

  1. He already set career bests last season
  2. You can find similar production at the quarterback position without spending a pick in Round 3 or Round 4.

When I try to find value, I always ask myself; What are the odds this player can top his numbers from last season? What are the odds that he will just repeat those numbers? Is there a better chance for him to regress than to improve?

Newton averaged 20.5 passing touchdowns per season before 2015, so it’s much more likely he regresses from his career high of 35 touchdown passes last season. I can still see him throwing in the range of 25-30 touchdowns, but I don’t think he will be anywhere close to exceeding 35 touchdown passes.

Season Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Rushing Yards Rushing Touchdowns
2011 4,051 21 706 14
2012 3,869 19 741 8
2013 3,379 24 585 6
2014 3,127 18 539 5
2015 3,837 35 636 10

His rushing yards will still be there, but his 10 rushing touchdowns from last season were the second-most rushing touchdowns in his career.

So it’s going to not only be nearly impossible for Newton to improve on those numbers, but it’s also going to be extremely hard for him to even repeat his stat total from 2015.

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Secondly, the advantage Newton gave you last seasons wasn’t actually that great throughout the season. After being drafted extremely late or not at all, Blake Bortles ended up as a top-five quarterback in a lot of leagues. While Newton finished with more total points than Bortles, he only averaged 4.5 more Fantasy points than Bortles per week.

Granted, those 4.5 Fantasy points can help you win a game if comes down to the wire, but what if those were the numbers from last year and Newton was a third-round pick? Is it really worth passing on the running backs and receivers available in Round 3 to get nearly the same type of production you can find at quarterback in the later rounds of your draft?

Just like we saw with Luck and Aaron Rodgers from 2015, we are going to see quarterbacks being drafted way too early based on what they did from last season.

Jon Kelly- @Jon_Kelly_

First things first: I am very much a pro-Cam Newton guy. That being said, is his current ADP justifiable?

Not likely….

I had Cam ranked in the top five in my quarterback rankings coming into last season even after losing Kelvin Benjamin, so I understand his upside completely. The beauty was that you were able to get him for a huge discount last season compared to what you have to pay for him this season.

Last season, Cam was being drafted as the 15th quarterback off the board, according to Fantasyfootballcalculator.com. This means that on average, he was being drafted in the tail end of Round 10.

That is an enormous discount while leaving plenty of room for upside.

This season, however, Newton is being touted as the top Fantasy quarterback and is being drafted as the first quarterback off the board. On average, he is going in the middle of Round 3. He did finish last season leading all Fantasy Football players in scoring, but lit’s important to understand how he did it.

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Cam had a career year last season, and it was no surprise he was the NFL’s MVP. He had career highs in passing touchdowns, the fewest interceptions of his career, and the highest quarterback rating of his career.

He averaged 20.5 passing touchdowns in his first four seasons in the NFL. Last season, he threw 35. During those first four seasons, he also averaged 8.25 rushing touchdowns but scored 10 last season.

Like I said, it was a career year.  But much like winter, regression is coming…

I don’t think we should see an enormous drop off this season, as I still expect him to finish as a top-five quarterback. That being said, the price is way too steep for me with his ADP in Round 3.

I’ll be looking elsewhere for my quarterback.

Payton Garrett- @DraftDayDame

Cam Newton is currently the first quarterback being drafted and for good reason. He finished last season as the highest-scoring player in Fantasy Football, and this season he has Kelvin Benjamin back in the lineup.

Even without playing a single game last season due to an ACL tear suffered in a preseason practice, Benjamin is being consistently ranked as a top-25 wide receiver. Benjamin finished his 2014 rookie campaign with a 73-1,008-9 stat line.

Coincidently, he also tied teammate Greg Olsen for 21st in receiving yards that season.

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And Olsen is a pretty big deal as well. Olsen is one of the most consistent Fantasy tight ends in the league. He recorded at least 1,000 receiving yards in his previous two seasons, and he averaged 78 receptions over the past three seasons.

The 31-year old tight end also hasn’t recorded less than five touchdown receptions since 2008.

Newton has come a long way in his career, especially in terms of maturity (perhaps that Super Bowl interview aside) and self preservation. One of the concerns with Newton is his mobility being an injury concern, but you no longer see him putting his body on the line or over extending plays like he did when he was younger.

Newton is in the prime right now, and he is surrounded by talent. I have Newton ranked as my top quarterback for 2016 Fantasy Football leagues. While his price tag is pretty steep, I might as well be reaching for Newton if I’m going to try and reach for the top-scoring quarterback.

 Drew Brees ADP: 6.03

 Jack Delaney- @YourFFCoach

One of the concerns with Brees last year was that he would throw the ball less. We constantly heard during the offseason that the Saints would shift to running the ball more, especially without Jimmy Graham not in the lineup.

But for the most part, that didn’t really happen. The Saints’ rushing attack finished with the 8th-fewest rushing yards per game in the league, and Brees finished with the most passing yards in the NFL. He had 10 games with 300 or more passing yards, and he threw 32 touchdown passes.

So we didn’t see the massive drop off in Fantasy production the brass had made us expect might happen.

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But the one issue I have with Brees is that he has a massive outlier in his totals. In Week 8, he attempted 59 passes, threw seven touchdowns, and finished the day with 505 passing yards.

If you take away that game, Brees was only averaging 1.7 touchdown passes per game. In a 16-game season, that would be roughly 27 touchdown passes for the year. Six fewer touchdown passes means Brees would have lost 36 Fantasy points. That would have given him less points than Ryan Fitzpatrick, the 12th-highest scoring quarterback from 2015.

His ADP isn’t bad, but that outlier really worries me.

Jon Kelly- @Jon_Kelly_

Drew Brees finished last season as the sixth-best Fantasy quarterback even after the slow start. Not having Jimmy Graham was very noticeable, but Brees did a fine job of using the weapons he had.

Finishing as QB6 was a down year for him, though. Brees has never finished outside of the top six in fantasy points by quarterbacks in the past decade.

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In the past 10 years, Brees has finished two seasons as the top quarterback in Fantasy. He’s also finished three times as the second-highest scoring quarterback. That means Brees has either been the highest-scoring quarterback or the second-highest scoring quarterback 50% of the time in the last 10 years.

I am never one to advocate for taking a quarterback early. But if that’s your cup of tea, then I would much rather spend a pick in Round 5 to have the consistency of Brees than some of the other quarterbacks going in or around that round.

Payton Garrett- @DraftDayDame

Drew Brees is a solid quarterback. He’s averaged over 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns in his past five seasons, and he finished as the sixth-best Fantasy producer last season.

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He is absolutely surrounded by talent. He has a stud running back in Mark Ingram, a fresh-faced tight end in Coby Fleener, and a bevy of receiver talent in Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, and rookie Michael Thomas.

The Saints are reportedly even looking at adding veteran Anquan Boldin into the mix.

But in spite of all this, I think he’s overvalued. He’s currently being drafted in the same round as Tom Brady, and just after Ben Roethlisberger. The truth is he’s aging, and his overall yardage and touchdowns have been decreasing consistently over the past five seasons.

I’d much rather take Emmanuel Sanders, Chris Ivory or Frank Gore, who are all also being drafted in Round 6.

Blake Bortles ADP: 7.05

 Jack Delaney- @YourFFCoach

Bottles is an interesting player this season because everyone is very divided on him.

I think there is more of a case to make that Bortles will have a solid Fantasy season than there is a case against him. One of the biggest “issues” I see about Bortles is that the Jaguars thrived in garbage time.

There seems to be the belief that he will not have these same types of opportunities in 2015, which I don’t understand at all.

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The defense for the Jaguars allowed the second-most points in the league last season, and I don’t see this defense becoming so much better that Bortles isn’t in similar situations. The Jaguars spent a lot of picks on defenders in the draft, but you just can’t expect them to turn things around in one year.

So I’m not going to disqualify him for that reason.

I love his weapons with the Allen duo and Julius Thomas, and I think he’s a steal in Round 7.

Jon Kelly- @Jon_Kelly_

Blake Bortles or as I like to call him, Blake Bottle$, is a hot commodity this season. Many Fantasy players are split on Bortles coming into the 2016 Fantasy Football season, but I think the asking price is right where it needs to be.

Bortles finished last season as the fourth-highest scoring quarterback last season, so if you were able to draft him or scoop him from the waivers, then that was an excellent value.

A seventh-round pick for Bortles is justifiable this season, though, as he adds extra value with his legs. Bottles rushed for 419 yards as a rookie and 310 with two scores last season.

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Regression is expected, but nothing too crazy as he still has one of the league’s best wide receivers to throw to in Allen Robinson. Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas will also be there to  keep defenses honest.

The Jaguars are expected to establish more of a run game this season with Chris Ivory, but that should not cause a huge drop in production from Bortles.

Trendning Now: Is Chris Ivory Undervalued? 

Looking at the quarterbacks that are being drafted after Bortles, there is not one that I would rather own than the Bortles. On the flip side, of the seven quarterbacks being drafted ahead of him, I would probably take any of them over Bortles.

That makes his ADP price perfect.

Payton Garrett- @DraftDayDame

I’m a fan of Bortles this season. Bortles finished last season with 4,428 passing yards and 35 touchdowns.

I’m betting he beats that in 2016….

He finished as the fourth best quarterback in Fantasy last season. In 2016, he is joined by the fifth-highest scoring wide receiver  WR Allen Robinson and 16th-highest scoring wide receiver Allen Hurns.

Bottles also has an upgrade at running with Chris Ivory, which should take some pressure off of the young signal caller.

I’m chalking up Julius Thomas’s lackluster Fantasy performance in 2015 to the time it took him to recovery from an injury, and adjusting to a new offense. Thomas has never been one to eat up yardage, but he makes up for it with his touchdown production. I predict he’ll return to being a touchdown monster in 2016 like he was in Denver.

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Bortles is a young, healthy up-and-coming quarterback who is surrounded by talent. If I’m waiting to draft a quarterback, I’m going to want someone with a ceiling as high like Bortles.

Philip Rivers ADP: 8.11

 Jack Delaney- @YourFFCoach

Rivers is a safe bet to finish in or near the top 10 if you want to wait on quarterbacks. Rivers led the NFL in passing attempts last year, but that was mostly because the rushing attack was terrible, and the defense allowed a decent amount of points per game to opposing teams.

Rivers was simply forced to be a one-man machine to move the ball.

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The veteran quarterback has only averaged 28 touchdown passes per season since 2010, so don’t expect him to magically top those numbers in 2016. The most touchdowns of his career was 34, and that was all the way back in 2008.

Again, I don’t mind picking him here if you want to wait on a quarterback. While nothing is a guarantee in Fantasy Football, Rivers is relatively safe.

Jon Kelly- @Jon_Kelly_

Rivers finished last season as the 12th-best Fantasy quarterback. I think it is very reasonable to think he finishes in the 10-15 range again this season.

With that being said, I question how many good seasons Rivers’ arm has left.

It is also worth noting that Rivers had a career high in passing yards last year. Much of that had to do with the fact that the Chargers had almost no run game with Melvin Gordon in the backfield.

Additionally, the porous defense caused the offense to be playing from behind at times. This led to Rivers throwing more than he normally would have.

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I don’t hate it if you decide to take Rivers in the later rounds in your draft, but Round 8 is just too steep for me. There are just too many variables that have to go his way in order for him to break into the top 10 this season.

For those reasons, I’m out.

Payton Garrett- @DraftDayDame

Philip Rivers is your absolute best bet at quarterback in the late rounds.

He may not be the shiniest toy in the toy store, but he offers you a solid return on your investment. Since 2009, he has consistently hit around 4,500 yards and 29 touchdowns.

While his numbers may not make him a top-tier fantasy producer, he is still able to serve your team as a reliable starter.

One of the biggest boosts Rivers will see to his potential production is Travis Benjamin (PS: I’m a huge Benjamin fan). He struggled in an inconsistent offense in Cleveland, and I’m sure Benjamin will be more than happy to get away from the carousel of quarterbacks he had last season.

But in spite of all the issues with the Browns, Benjamin still recorded  966 receiving yards last season. He also hauled in five touchdowns and was  a top-30 receiver in PPR leagues. The slim and speedy Benjamin should be the perfect compliment to his bigger and stronger counterpart, Keenan Allen. Allen is currently being ranked as a top-20 receiver.

Not to mention, Rivers still has the bionic man Antonio Gates in the lineup. No matter his age, Gates seems to just keep on going. His rapport with Rivers has been built over many years, and Gates still remains a serious end-zone threat at the age of 36.

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This season, Gates’ backup is the top-rated rookie tight end of the 2016 NFL Draft, Hunter Henry. If Gates’ age finally starts to catch up with him, Rivers could do a lot worse than having Henry step up to fill his shoes.

If I am waiting on a quarterback, I won’t be disappointed with landing Rivers in Round 9.

 

Matthew Stafford ADP: 12.02

Jack Delaney- @YourFFCoach

Stafford had a much better second half of the season than the first. From Weeks 10-17, he threw 17 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. He averaged 275 passing yards per game during that time frame as well.

But because of the departure of Calvin Johnson, Fantasy players are obviously skeptical of how Stafford will perform without one of the best receivers in NFL history in the lineup.

He still has interesting options in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Eric Ebron, and the Lions may even sign a veteran like Anquan Boldin for a little more depth.

I think he could have a successful season, but he’s not going to cost if he doesn’t. I would rather have him as a backup than to have to rely on him as a starter, but Stafford will offer you a great return on your investment if he is consistent from week-to-week and worth starting.

 Jon Kelly- @Jon_Kelly_

Stafford finished last season as a top-10 quarterback but is now being drafted as the 19th quarterback off the board this season. All this because of Calvin Johnson retiring?

Stafford has never finished worse than the 14th-highest scoring quarterback in the past five years.

No doubt that the loss of Megatron will hurt, but Golden Tate had huge games when Johnson was sidelined for a few games in 2014.

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Stafford was also very efficient last season, setting a career high in completion percentage. Last season was also his lowest attempts in the past five years. With the loss of Megatron and a very susceptible defense, I think those passing attempts will spike, which should help combat the expected regression.

I do expect a dip in Fantasy points from Stafford in 2016, but I still think he finishes inside of the top 12. That makes him a great bargain considering his current ADP.

Payton Garrett- @DraftDayDame

A starting quarterback after Round 10 is kind of like pizza. I mean any pizza is good pizza, amiright?

But there is a reason that Stafford’s stock has fallen, and that is due to the loss of megastar Calvin Johnson.

The new man on Campus is Golden Tate, who failed to crack the top 30 for wide receivers last season.

Tate is seeing a boost in predicted Fantasy value this season, though, due to the absence of Johnson. But until I see some payoff, that’s not where I’m wanting to invest. The Lions attempted to bring in reinforcements with Marvin Jones, but just like Tate, Jones is used to serving as a complimentary receiver. Jones finished with 816 yards and four touchdowns in 2015, behind star receiver A.J. Green.

Can Tate or Jones emerge as a stud? Or will they each form a receiver committee role to replace Megatron?

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Losing a player like Johnson is sure to shake up an offense. I’m waiting a season to invest in any receiver on the Lions. I’d much rather take a chance on Jameis Winston, who is being drafted around the same time as Stafford.

Thanks for checking out our quarterback ADP review. We will also be looking at running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Stay tuned!

In the meantime, check out all of our quarterback profiles right here.  

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Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football, 2016 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks, Fantasy Football

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