As we start to gear up for the 2016 Fantasy Football season, it’s important to note that there will be some key players that will be sporting new team colors this fall. All off-season transactions, whether big or small, will have an impact on the upcoming NFL season.
And just like in 2015 Fantasy Football leagues, there are a few players in particular that stick out to me as not being valued correctly…
Most of the time, when good players go to “Good” teams, they become overvalued and drafted ahead of where they should be (see DeMarco Murray, 2015). On the flip side of that, when good players go to “Bad” teams, they become way undervalued (see Brandon Marshall, 2015).
As a Fantasy player and writer, I want to try and help you capitalize on this as often as possible.
One of those undervalued players in 2016 Fantasy Football leagues is strikingly obvious…
I give you – THE CASE FOR CHRIS IVORY.
Chris Ivory RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ivory sticks out the most to me for this upcoming NFL season. He is shaping up to be an absolute steal in Fantasy drafts. Ivory quietly finished as a RB1 in both standard (RB8) and PPR (RB12) leagues last season.
Now, Ivory is being drafted as RB28 according to his ADP (average draft position) on FantasyPros.com. To put that into perspective, it means that on average, he is being drafted at the end of Round 7 or the start of Round 8.
This all just because he is now playing for the Jags?
For starters, don’t sleep on this offense. Blake Bortles and company moved the ball pretty impressively throughout the 2015 season. Bottles finished with the sixth-most passing attempts last season, which means the coaching staff has a lot of faith in him.
But Bortles may have not needed to attempt all of those passes if the rushing attack was more effective…
You see, the Jaguars only scored five rushing touchdowns last year. And two of those rushing touchdowns were from Bortles. With Ivory in the lineup now, though, those numbers should change.
Ivory will immensely improve the Jaguars short-yardage rushing attack when the team is near the end zone. Last season with the New York Jets, Ivory scored six of his seven rushing touchdowns within the 10-yard line.
Last season, the Jaguars did not trust T.J. Yeldon when the ball was near the end zone. Yeldon received just nine carries all season inside the 10-yard line. Four of those carries were inside the five yard line, but he was only able to score two rushing touchdowns.
One of those came on a 28-yard burst against the Buffalo Bills.
Chris Ivory in 2016 Fantasy Football Leagues
Jacksonville didn’t bring Ivory in to play second fiddle to Yeldon. And the brass didn’t bring him in just to be a member of a 50/50 committee.
I fully expect Ivory to be the workhorse back this season. Having a bruiser like Ivory in the lineup will keep opposing defenses honest, helping to allow Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson to remain an imposing duo to contain.
Also, don’t forget that Ivory showed last season he could actually be a dual-threat back. He caught 30 passes for 217 yards, which were the most in his career.
I’m not saying Ivory is going to repeat his totals from last season. Of course, I can’t say for certain if he will finish 2016 as a RB1.
But I do think he finishes in the top 20. Easily.
If he remained with the Jets, my guess is that he would be getting drafted in Round 4 or Round 5. But there is no reason to pass on him at his current ADP, especially for an MFL10 league.