Fantasy Football Implications of Dorial Green-Beckham Signing with the Philadelphia Eagles

Physically, Dorial Green-Beckham seemingly has all the tools to be a Fantasy Football stud.

He’s 6-foot-5, 237 pounds, and he runs a 4.49 40-yard dash.

The 23-year old receiver had two great Fantasy performances last season, showing a hint of what Fantasy players might be able to expect on a more consistent basis in 2016.

Week Receptions Receiving Yards TDs Fantasy Points
13 5 119 1 22.9
15 6 113 0 17.3

But Green-Beckham becoming a reliable Fantasy receiver started to seem more and more unlikely as training camp began.

Entering the 2016 NFL season, the Tennessee Titans have more receivers than they know what to do with.

  • Andre Johnson
  • Rishard Matthews
  • Kendall Wright
  • Tre McBride
  • Justin Hunter
  • Harry Douglas
  • Tajae Sharpe

He was buried on the depth chart, and Green-Beckham did nothing to stand out in camp. So it appeared unlikely he would earn a consistent role in the offense.

I always focus on consistency, which made me completely avoid him.

All of that changed on August 16, though, as Green-Beckham was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles for lineman Dennis Kelly.

I haven’t targeted the second-year receiver in any of my season long leagues, but I wanted to breakdown what this meant for the 2016 Fantasy Football season and if I should change my mind.

I also wanted to get lead writer Jon Kelly’s opinion, as he did draft Green-Beckham in one of his 2016 Fantasy Championship leagues.

Editor’s Note: Jon doesn’t like to brag, but he has an impressive resume in daily fantasy and season long leagues. Whenever I have a lineup question for daily, he’s the first person I seek for advice.

His accomplishments include:

  • 2014 RealTime Sports The Fantasy Championship Individual League Winner
  • 2015 DraftKings PGA $150K Fairway Winner
  • 2016 Fantasy Aces NFL 3K SalaryPro Spin Move Winner

Dorial Green-Beckham 2016 Fantasy Football Outlook

The first thing we want to look at is Green-Beckham’s own skill set to determine if he is worth targeting.

One of the reasons Green-Beckham got on the nerves of the coaching staff in Tennessee was his inconsistency. Green-Beckham had issues with his weight, route running, and catching the ball.

In 2015, the Green-Beckham dropped four passes. While that may not sound so bad, he only caught a total of 32 passes last season.

In total, he caught just 47.8% of his targets.

With his move to Philadelphia, though, I began to think more favorably of him.

Quarterback Situation for Dorial Green-Beckham in Philadelphia

His quarterback situation is going to be better with Sam Bradford. It won’t be great, but it will be better.

The Titans want Marcus Mariota to be more of a dual-threat quarterback this season, which means his 238 passing yards per game average last season could remain stagnant or even drop in 2016.

Bradford averaged 266 passing yards per game last year, which is better for Green-Beckham.

More passing attempts from Bradford doesn’t mean Green-Beckham is automatically going to score more Fantasy points, but it at least gives him the opportunity to be more productive.

And even though there’s no way to measure how this will help his Fantasy performance, I do like the fact that Bradford has a chip on his shoulder. He was no fan of Carson Wentz being drafted in Round 1 of the 2016 NFL Draft, so he has something to prove this year.

He has the motivation to show he’s worth being a starter in Philadelphia, or he’s worth another team offering a big contract for at the end of the season.

Wide Receiver Situation for Dorial Green-Beckham in Philadelphia

Before this trade, I was heavily targeting Rueben Randle in my MFL10 drafts.

If anything happened to Jordan Matthews, Randle was the receiver who would see the most increase in targets in Philadelphia. Even though it seems Randle has been in the league forever, he is still just 25 years old and is having behind a 57-797-8 stat line from last season.

During the summer, Randle drew rave reviews. Now, he might not even make the roster.

So now-if he can memorize the playbook and get on the same page with Bradford- Green-Beckham could benefit the most if Matthews is sidelined for any reason.

Green-Beckham has a major advantage in size and strength over Nelson Agholar and Josh Huff, and his 40-yard dash time is better than Huff’s and not far off from Agholar.

Bradford targeted Matthews (6-foot-3, 212 pounds) the most in the red-zone last year, which means Green-Beckham could take over that role if Matthews is out.

Conclusion on Dorial Green-Beckham

Fantasy success, in its most basic form, is when a football player has a good skill set and can show off that skill set through increased opportunities.

Green-Beckham has the physical tools to earn a spot on your roster. But, he also has issues in terms of nailing down the fundamentals. He needs to combine that skill set with crisp route running and improve concentration.

For the second part of the equation, he could have the opportunity to show off that skill set if anything happens to Matthews. In Tennessee, he had a mountain of receivers to climb over before earning a consistent role.

He has more of an opportunity to be Fantasy relevant if Matthews is out, but overall, he has less of a barrier for success in Philadelphia than he did in Tennessee.

Philadelphia, in comparison, doesn’t have a lot of depth behind Matthews.

I wouldn’t want to rely too heavily on Green-Beckham this season if I draft him. But when considering what’s the worst that can happen for Philadelphia (Matthews being out), I think Green-Beckham is a nice insurance policy you can draft in Round 12, according to FantasyFootballCalculator.com.

And when I asked Jon about what he thought about the trade, he was pumped as an owner of DGB.

“I am actually pretty excited about Dorial Green-Beckham becoming a Philadelphia Eagle,” Kelly told me. “It was clear that he needed some time to develop as he really came on during the second half of last season. He only received 14 targets through the first six games of the regular season, but he averaged over five targets per game during the final 10. He also reached the 100 yard receiving mark on two separate occasions during that span.”

But Kelly also pointed out how it’s important not to rely too heavily on the second-year receiver in 2016 Fantasy Football leagues…

“What we can expect from him on the Eagles is tough to predict. That being said, aside from Jordan Matthews, the Eagles are very thin at wide receiver so DGB instantly provides depth at the position. Additionally, he is a huge body in the red-zone as he stands at 6-foot-5,  240 pounds. You can expect him to be a main target for Sam Bradford once the Eagles get inside the 20-yard line. His touchdown upside alone is worth drafting him at his current ADP of WR56, which should climb now that he is an Eagle.”

If you haven’t already, make sure to check out Jon’s full draft to see who else he added.

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Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football, 2016 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers, Fantasy Football

Tags: , , , ,

2 replies

  1. Encouraged by your book, I started a blog about fantasy football, too. And the first article I wrote was about DGB, too. It gives me a good feeling for my start to see that you share most of my opinions. I just want to add two more points I made in my article: Another benefit for DGB this season will be the defenses he faces; if he had stayed in Tennessee he would have faced the 3 strongest defenses while he now encounters three of the weakest defenses, so that’s good for him. The other point I made was the off-field activities of a character like him… they can easily get him benched or even suspended which will have an impact on fantasy if you are not only looking at daily fantasy. Do you also share these points?

    • Hey Jonas, That’s awesome! Glad it encouraged you and congrats on starting the site. As a whole, the schedule for receivers on the Eagles is friendlier than the schedule for the Titans in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position last year, so that works in DGB’s favor. And you are right issues off the field are always a concern. Luckily since you can draft him much later than someone like Josh Gordon or Le’Veon Bell it won’t hurt your team if he is suspended or something happens, but it does make you worry about his concentration on the game and improving upon his natural abilities. Good luck in your leagues this year, and congrats again on starting your blog.

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