Week 2 NFL DFS Lineup Advice

Jon’s Week 1 DFS DraftKing lineup recommendation scored 183.12 points. He’s looking to provide with those same type of results in his Week 2 NFL DFS picks. 

Jon Kelly goes by the alias “JonnyTrueLove” on DraftKings. He has been playing DFS since 2013 and is currently ranked #643 in the Heavyweight division and #2,105 in Tournament Player of the Year rankings on Rotogrinders. He specializes in NFL, NBA and PGA DFS – primarily playing cash games in NFL. Some other highlights include the following:

  • Author of the The Ultimate Fantasy Football Playbook (2014,2015)
  • 2014 RealTime Sports
  • The Fantasy Championship Individual League Winner
  • 2015 DraftKings PGA $150K Fairway Winner
  • 2016 Fantasy Aces NFL 3K SalaryPro Spin Move Winner

What an amazing start to the NFL season. Week 1 of the 2016 Fantasy Football season is officially behind us, so hopefully you were able to make some money and have some fun while doing so.

Now it is time to look ahead to Week 2 NFL DFS action.

A few things that stuck out to me when first looking at the pricing is how quickly the sites react to some players’ performances. A good way to exploit this is by targeting players who:

A. Did not perform well in Week 1.

B) Dropped in salary because of that for Week 2.

C. Still have plenty of opportunity to produce but didn’t for whatever reason in Week 1.

Some examples of this are Tavon Austin, who had 12 targets but did absolutely nothing. Tyler Lockett had eight and it was the same result.

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I’m not saying to go crazy and build your teams around these guys for cash games, but these are players the DFS community is overlooking right now who could produce big time.

Another example is Allen Robinson receiving 15 targets against Green Bay but failing to score. Box score scouts will see his 6-72-0 line and look elsewhere, ignoring the fact that he was targeted 15 times and he dropped two would-be touchdowns.

You had better believe I’m going back to Arob this week. Anyway, enough rambling and on to the goods.

Who should I start at quarterback for DraftKings in Week 2?

Eli Manning: $7,600 (DK), $8,100 (FD)

Over/Under: 52.5, New York Giants -4.5

Expected Ownership: 18%

Manning checks in as the fifth-most expensive quarterback on DraftKings this week, but he is only the 10th-most expensive quarterback on FanDuel.

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But no matter where you start him, he is going to be an extremely popular pick against the Saints. Manning threw three touchdowns against Dallas in Week 1, and he will continue that momentum moving forward.

I expect Manning and OBJ will be one of the top stacks in Week 2.

Drew Brees: $8,200 (DK), $9,200 (FD)

Over/Under: 52.5, New Orleans Saints +4.5

Expected Ownership: 8%

Is it possible for Brees to be overlooked for the second week in DFS action? Even after his 400 passing yards and four touchdowns in Week 1, Fantasy players are still overlooking him.

I understand that he is one of the most expensive DFS quarterbacks in Week 2, and I know that will drive down his ownership. Also, many people are looking at Brees not playing in a dome, and are questioning how effective he will be.

This game is going to be a shootout, though, and he and Manning are going to finish in the top five at the quarterback position. The last four times these teams have squared off, the winning team has scored 48 or more points.

Brees was overlooked last week, so make sure that doesn’t happen again.

Marcus Mariota: $6,000 (DK), $7,500 (FD)

Over/Under: 47, Titans +5.5

Expected Ownership: 8%

Over/Under: 45, Broncos -6

Expected Ownership: 5%

Even with a tough matchup last week, Mariota almost provided a massive return on your investment. This week, he gets a friendly matchup against the Lions.

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In Week 1, Andrew Luck torched this defense for 385 passing yards and four touchdowns. The front seven is respectable, but the secondary is nothing a quarterback will be afraid of.

Mariota should attempt at least 40 passes in this game since the Titans are expected to play from behind in this game. His cheap price tag allows you to pay up for other positions.

Who should I start at running back for DraftKings in Week 2?

David Johnson: $7,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)

Over/Under: 50, Cardinals -6.5

Expected Ownership: 18%

Johnson will be one of the most popular running backs in Week 2 for obvious reasons. He dominated the teams’ offensive snaps in Week 1, and his workload will not be compromised by the other backs on the team.

He is priced too high on FanDuel, which should keep his ownership down. That makes him a great play in tournaments.

He has a solid matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, and the Cardinals will rely on Johnson as a pass catcher and a rusher to move the chains.

C.J. Anderson: $6,800 (DK), $7,800 (FD)

Over/Under: 45, Broncos -6

Expected Ownership: 15%

Anderson is probably my top running back play in Week 2, especially for cash games.

He is at home, which generally correlates to more fantasy points for running backs. Secondly, he is the guy in the Denver backfield as he got 24 touches last week. He also managed to score twice, and was actually involved in the passing attack.

Finally, he has an excellent matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. The defense for the Colts has isn’t stopping anyone. They just let Ameer Abdullah gash them for 5.3 YPC and 120 yards from scrimmage.

It is full steam ahead for C.J. this week.

T.J. Yeldon:  $4700 (DK), $6500 (FD)

Over/Under: 47, Jaguars +3

Expected Ownership: 12%

With Chris Ivory not expected to be active again in Week 2, Yeldon makes for a great DFS Week 2 play.

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Yeldon was super ineffective with his 21 carries last week against Green Bay. But with that being said, the key thing is that he carried the ball 21 times! He also had six targets and caught four of them. This week, Yeldon should be able to do a bit more on the ground against the San Diego Chargers, who allowed the seventh-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs last season.

Spencer Ware also destroyed this defense in Week 1.

Who should I start at wide receiver for DraftKings in Week 2?

Odell Beckham:  $9500 (DK), $9400 (FD)

Over/Under: 52.5, Giants -4.5

Expected Ownership: 27%

The last time Beckham faced this defense in New Orleans,  he blitzed the Saints for an 8-130-3 line off of just nine targets. The defense for the Saints has yet to improve, and it just gave up 137 yards to Amari Cooper.

If the Saints try to stop OBJ at all costs, Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz are likely to have a big game. They are worth a look in GPPs.

That being said, even if that is the Saints’ gameplan, they still won’t be able to contain Beckham. Also, Delvin Breaux will reportedly miss the next six weeks or so, making the Saints even more vulnerable against the pass.

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OBJ is an absolute must start in Week 2 for cash games and borderline for tournaments.

AJ Green$8900 (DK), $8900 (FD)

Over/Under: 48 Bengals +3.5

Expected Ownership: 18%

Green should be one of the most popular wider receivers on DraftKings in Week 2 after his monster performance in Week 1. He hauled in 12 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown.

This week, he gets the Steelers’ secondary that looked shaky on Monday Night Football, as they gave up over 100 yards to DeSean Jackson. In the last four meetings against the Steelers, Green has averaged nine catches for 139 yards and .75 touchdowns.

You can expect him and Andy Dalton to be connecting early and often this week, especially if this game gets out of control in scoring.

Tajae Sharpe: $4100 (DK), $6000 (FD)

Over/Under: 47 Titans +6

Expected Ownership: 13%

Sharpe should see a boost in ownership, but not enough to make him a strong fade this week.

He had 11 targets in the season opener and played nearly double the snaps of all other receivers on the Titans.

He is clearly the guy to target in all formats this week, especially considering he is way underpriced again. Sharpe gets to square off against the Lions’ secondary that allowed 385 yards through the air last week.

Not only is he a great play based on the matchup, but his salary allows you to pay up for Beckham and Green.

Who should I start for tight end on DraftKings in Week 2?

Coby Fleener $3900 (DK), $5600 (FD)

Over/Under 52.5, Saints +4.5

Expected Ownership: 5%

Everyone was very disappointed with Fleener’s performance (or lack thereof) last week. But he was on the field for the majority of the game, so his opportunities will come with time.

Also, this game is set up to be very high scoring, and the Giants have historically struggled against opposing tight ends. Jason Witten carved them up last week with nine catches.

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This is the perfect bounce back spot for Fleener, and not many other DFS players will be targeting him.

Josh Hill also tweaked his ankle, so it looks like it will be all Fleener this week.

Delanie Walker: $4500 (DK), $6600 (FD)

Over/Under 47 Titans +6

Expected Ownership: 15%

As I stated earlier in regards to Sharpe, the defense for the Lions is very suspect.

Walker only received five targets in Week 1 against Minnesota, but I expect that to change this week. Walker and Sharpe will see the majority of targets for Tennessee and considering the matchup, I like them both this week. The Lions also gave up three touchdowns to tight ends on the Colts in Week 1.

Jesse James: $3400 (DK), $4500 (FD)

Over/Under 48 Steelers -3.5

Expected Ownership: 7%

That 7% ownership prediction is the ‘sharp’ money. James quietly had seven targets and caught five of them for 31 yards in Week 1.

While I don’t expect James to start ripping off huge gains this week, I do think that the way he is used in the offense is valuable in a PPR format. James played 100% of the snaps and Ben Roethlisberger did look towards him as a red-zone target as well.

The Bengals last season had a tough time stopping  Heath Miller , as he had 10 catches in both games he played against the Bengals.

I like him more on DraftKings this week, as FanDuel you almost need him to score a touchdown because of his price tag.

My Core:

Marcus Mariota/ Drew Brees

CJ Anderson/TJ Yeldon/Lamar Miller

OBJ/AJ Green/Allen Robinson

Delanie Walker/Coby Fleener/Jesse James

My Top Fades:  

Andrew Luck

Adrian Peterson

Dez Bryant

Rob Gronkowski

Top Stacks: 

Eli+OBJEli+OBJ+Shepard

Mariota+SharpeMariota+Walker, Mariota+Sharpe+Walker

Brees+Snead

Bortles+RobinsonBortles+Yeldon+Robinson

 Sample Lineups: DraftKings Week 2

Keep in mind, I primarily play just one optimal cash game lineup that I put into double ups, 50/50s and H2H contests. If any changes occur, I will do my best to update this immediately.

2016-17 Cash game record: 1-0 

Cash Game Lineup            Remaining Salary $100
QB Cam Newton $7,900
RB CJ Anderson $6,800
RB TJ Yeldon $4,700
WR Odell Beckham Jr. $9,500
WR Travis Benjamin $4,400
WR TajaeSharpe $4,100
TE Jesse James $3,400
FLEX Mark Ingram $6,200
D/ST Baltimore Ravens $3,000

For tournaments, I am a multi-entry player, so I am not afraid to get exposure to some players that may seem risky but have upside. If you’re only playing one tournament lineup, be aware that some of these plays may not fit an ideal strategy for a single-entry format.

Tournament Lineup                     Remaining Salary $200    
QB Blake Bortles $6,700
RB Danny Woodhead $5,200
RB TJ Yeldon$4,700
WR Tyler Lockett $4,600
WR AJ Green $8,900
WR Allen Robinson $7,800
TE Delanie Walker $4,500
FLEX Mike Wallace $4,700
D/ST Oakland Raiders $2,700

Best of luck this week everyone! If you want to discuss plays and strategy, hit me up on twitter @jon_Kelly_

Also, if you use my lineup to win some money, then tweet at me with a screenshot and let me know!

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Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football, 2016 Fantasy Football DFS, Fantasy Football

Tags: , , , ,

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