Week 3 NFL DFS Picks

We are now through two weeks of the 2016 Fantasy Football season.

We are not yet to the point where we can totally rely on the data from the first two weeks but, there are definitely some things that confirm what we saw in Week 1 NFL DFS action.

Last week taught us there is a massive edge in tournaments by straying from the pack on popular plays.

Editor’s Note: Make sure to check out Jon’s Week 2 lineup where he won $2,000.

The plays that I highlight below are mainly cash game plays unless otherwise noted, but in the sample lineup section, I include some pivot plays.

Who should I start at quarterback for DraftKings & FanDuel in Week 3? 

Andrew Luck
$7,600 (DK), $8,700 (FD)
Over/Under: 51 Colts – 3
Expected Ownership: 8%

Luck is in a great bounce back spot this week after facing the tenacious Denver Broncos in Week 2.

We should see him rebound nicely this week closer to the numbers we saw in Week 1. Aside from the CB Jason Verrett, the San Diego Chargers are very beatable in the secondary.

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The Chargers also can’t stop the run, but I do not expect the Colts to hand Frank Gore the ball 20+ times.

Even with Donte Moncrief sidelined, Luck should be considered a top 5 QB this week.

Blake Bortles
$6,500 (DK) $7,900 (FD)
Over/Under: 47 Ravens – 1
Expected Ownership: 6%

Bortles has yet to have a big game, but he has quietly thrown for over 320 yards in Weeks1-2.

Something to keep in mind is that Allen Robinson has gotten off to a very slow start with the tough matchups the past two weeks.

I fully expect him to have a big game against the Ravens’ secondary, which means I expect Bortles to have a big game as well.

Bold Bet: This is the week he throws for 300+ and three touchdowns.

Marcus Mariota
$5,900 (DK) $7,700 (FD)
Over/Under: 47 Raiders – 1
Expected Ownership: 5%

Mariota was in last week’s column also. He didn’t crush value, but he didn’t hurt us either.

I think through the first two weeks of the season, we have seen Mariota’s floor. Now he has one of the best matchups on paper against the defense for the Oakland raiders.

The Raiders have given up over 800 yards to opposing quarterbacks.

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I like him more on DraftKings, where his price is just way too cheap and it allows us to pay up other premium positions.

Who should I start at running back for DraftKings & FanDuel in Week 3? 

Running Back

DeMarco Murray
$6,300 (DK) $7,700 (FD)
Over/Under: 47 Raiders – 1
Expected Ownership: 14%

Murray has 222 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns through the the first two weeks of the 2016 Fantasy Football season.

What is even more exciting is that he has 14 targets during those games. Murray is going to get 18-20 touches, so you shouldn’t be worried about Derrick Henry.

Oakland is not the easiest team to run against, but I think Murray will continue to stay involved in the passing attack.

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That gives him a pretty safe floor for Week 3.

Melvin Gordon
$5,800 (DK) $7,100 (FD)
Over/Under: 51 Colts – 3
Expected Ownership: 24%

With Danny Woodhead out for the season, Gordon is going to get a full work load this week against the Colts.

Backup Brandon Oliver is already out as well, which makes me like Gordon even more.

Gordon has 159 rushing yards and three touchdowns through the first two weeks. The Chargers will have no choice but to get him involved in some of the passing game as well.

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I think this game will be more of a passing game for both teams, but with Gordon the only back there and getting all the red-zone work.

He is worth the price on both sites. Don’t overthink it.

Theo Riddick
$4,900 (DK) $6,400 (FD)
Over/Under: 47.5 Packers – 7
Expected Ownership: 12%

I like Riddick much less on FanDuel where touchdowns are more important rather than receptions.

But on DraftKings, Riddick should be in your lineup for cash and tournaments. Riddick has 173 total yards and two touchdowns this season, and with Abdullah out for the foreseeable future, his workload should increase.

The Packers are favored by a touchdown, so the game script should be in Riddick’s favor.

Who should I start at wide receiver for DraftKings & FanDuel in Week 3?

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper
$7,700 (DK) $7,700 (FD)
Over/Under: 47 Raiders – 1
Expected Ownership: 13%

Cooper is in a great spot this week against Tennessee.

The Titans are pretty solid against the run but struggle at containing top wide receivers. Cooper has over 200 yards on 20 targets through the first two games, and it is only a matter of time before he finds the end zone.

The great thing about Cooper is that the Raiders defense is so bad that Derek Carr is constantly having to throw the ball. The Titans are favored by 1.5 at home in this matchup, so I expect it to be no different.

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Cooper is a great bet for 100 plus yards and a score this week.

Jarvis Landry
$6,600 (DK) $7,000 (FD)
Over/Under: 42 Dolphins – 10
Expected Ownership: 15%

In two tough matchups so far this season, Landry has 17 catches for 194 yards off of 22 targets. He now gets a very favorable matchup at home against a Cleveland team that is a mess on both sides of the ball.

I am not expecting the Dolphins to pound the ball with Jay Ajayi.

So even with the Dolphins being a large favorite, I think Landry sees double digit targets.

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Keep in mind, he is a much stronger play on DraftKings for the full point PPR scoring, but he is priced very fair on both sites.

Allen Robinson
$7,500 (DK) $7,900 (FD)
Over/Under: 47 Ravens – 1
Expected Ownership: 10%

After receiving a league-high 15 targets in Week 1, Robinson was targeted just five times against Chargers CB Jason Verrett.

Robinson has started this season off with a slow, but that was against two tough matchups. I fully expect him to see double-digit targets this week and produce in a big way against Baltimore.

This game is supposed to be close.The Jags are expected to score over three touchdowns, so you have to think Robinson is going to be heavily involved.

We can hopefully get him at reduced ownership this week, making him an elite tournament play.

Who should I start at tight end for DraftKings & FanDuel in Week 3?

Tight End

Jordan Reed
$6,500 (DK) $7,500 (FD)
Over/Under: 46.5 Giants – 3.5
Expected Ownership: 12%

Reed has also started off much slower than expected.

The 26-year old tight end has had 12 catches for 134 yards off 17 targets and has yet to find the end zone.

But in Week 3 DFS action, Reed has a great matchup against the Giants that leaked points to tight ends all season long last year, giving up the second most in the NFL. The Redskins are now 0-2 and desperately need to get a win.

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Kirk Cousins will be throwing quite a bit in this one, and Reed will be his main target. Reed has multi-touchdown upside as he scored two touchdowns in a single game four different times last season.

Delanie Walker
$5,000 (DK) $6,900 (FD)
Over/Under: 47 Raiders – 1
Expected Ownership: 10%

Walker is coming off a solid line where he caught all six of his targets for 83 yards and a touchdown. This week, Walker has an excellent matchup along with Mariota against the Oakland defense that has struggled everywhere in the secondary.

The defense for Oakland has allowed over 800 yards through the first two weeks, and ranked in the bottom three in Fantasy points allowed to tight ends last season.

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Walker has an affordable price tag and should be started this week.

Editor’s Note: Walker has missed practices this week and is questionable. Make sure to check his official status before locking him in your lineup. 

Dennis Pitta
$3,400 (DK) $5,000 (FD)
Over/Under: 47 Ravens – 1
Expected Ownership: 9%

Part of me hates this play. The other part loves it.

Pitta has a 66% catch rate so far this season and was targeted 12 times last week. I think this game has a good possibility to be a shoot out with both teams having no run game and a sub-par defense.

At 6-foot-4, Pitta is a huge target for Flacco, especially in the redzone.

He has yet to score a touchdown this season, but if he continues to see this type of volume, they will come.

I mean, they are not going to throw fades to Mike Wallace, right?

My Core:

Mariota/Bortles

DeMarco Murray/Melvin Gordon

Cooper/Landry/Arob/Benjamin

Reed/Walker/Pitta

Top Stacks

Mariota + Walker/Sharpe

Bortles + Allen Robinson

Rivers + Travis Benjamin

Sample Lineups for Week 2

Keep in mind, I primarily play just one optimal cash game lineup that I put into double ups, 50/50s and H2H contests. If any changes occur, I will do my best to update this immediately.

2016-17 Cash game record: 2-0

Cash Game Lineup           Remaining Salary $100
QB Marcus Mariota $5,900
RB Melvin Gordon $5,800
RB DeMarco Murray $6,300
WR Travis Benjamin 5,200
WR Jarvis Landry $6,600
WR Allen Robinson $7,500
TE Dennis Pitta $3,400
FLEX Marvin Jones Jr. $6,200
D/ST Miami Dolphins $3,000

For tournaments, I am a multi-entry player, so I am not afraid to get exposure to some players that may seem risky but have upside.

If you’re only playing one tournament lineup, be aware that some of these plays may not fit the single-entry formats.

Tournament Lineup                     Remaining Salary $0  
QB Phillip Rivers $6,700
RB Frank Gore $5,000
RB DeMarco Murray $6,300
WR Travis Benjamin $5,200
WR Amari Cooper $7,700
WR Allen Robinson $7,500
TE Dennis Pitta $3,400
FLEX Phillip Dorsett $4,400
D/ST Carolina Panthers $3,800

Best of luck this week everyone.

If you want to discuss plays and strategy, hit me up on twitter @jon_Kelly_ Also, if you use my lineup to win some money, then tweet at me with a screenshot and let me know!

Need rankings for Week 3? Here ya go!

2016 Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings 

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Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football, 2016 Fantasy Football DFS, Fantasy Football

Tags: , , , ,

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