Several weeks ago, I finished the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (affiliate link).

It’s a great book. If you want to strengthening your decision-making process in any aspect of your life, I highly recommend it.

There’s a lot of important information in the book. But there was one main lesson I took away from Superforecasting...

The best forecasters were flexible.

In general, I think Fantasy players like when someone takes a strong stance early. It’s reassuring to hear that someone else is bullish on a player you were thinking about drafting.

And by the time you get to draft day, you feel confident about that decision.

As an example, let’s pretend I was all in on Willie Snead after his 2015 campaign back in January 2016. With a 69-984-3 stat line, he had a promising start with the New Orleans Saints.

I always like these kinds of numbers because it means the player has room to increase his Fantasy production. If he was like Golden Tate who recorded 99 receptions in 2014 and 90 in 2015, he doesn’t have room to increase his Fantasy production by catching more passes.

But with 69 receptions, it wouldn’t be a stretch to imagine Snead finishing with as much as 80 catches in 2016.

If he finished with 80 receptions, that could give him an additional 157 receiving yards with his YPC average being 14.3 in 2015. So just through receptions and yards, that would give him a 80-1,141 stat line.

Not bad.

Now, with just three touchdown receptions in 2015, that certainly seemed like he could approve on that number. After all, he finished third in red-zone targets in 2015.

Right now in PPR leagues, Emmanuel Sanders is the 15th-highest scoring receiver with a 79-1,032-5 stat line. If I knew those were the numbers Snead needed to hit to be the 15th-highest scoring receiver, I would feel extremely confident stating he would be at the minimum a top-20 receiver in 2016 Fantasy Football leagues.

And since he was still available at the start of Round 9 (according to FantasyPros PPR ADP data), that means you could potentially draft a top-20 receiver as late as Round 9.

Sign me up!

So as long as Drew Brees was healthy, Snead seemingly could have been one of the biggest steals of the 2016 Fantasy Football season.

But, here’s one of the reasons I should have toned down my love for Snead as more information was available…

Snead needed more touchdowns if I thought he was going to be in for a big year. Saying that he finished third in red-zone targets in 2015 sounded impressive.

However, there was more information to focus on than just that. Going back to 2014, you can see that Brees favors tall players in the red zone. In 2014, Jimmy Graham (6-foot-7), and Marques Colston (6-foot-4) finished with the most red-zone targets for the Saints. In 2015, Ben Watson (6-foot-3) and Josh Hill (6-foot-5) finished with the most red-zone targets.

For 2016?  You guessed right if you said two tall players would finish with the most red-zone targets for the Saints. Despite a disappointing campaign, Coby Fleener (6-foot-6) finished with 16 red-zone targets from Weeks 1-16. Rookie receiver Michael Thomas (6-foot-3) wasn’t far behind with 15.

For Snead (5-foot-11) to realistically increase his touchdown production in 2016, he would have needed to turn more of his catches outside of the red zone into touchdowns.

And through Weeks 1-16, that didn’t happen. All of Snead’s touchdowns (4) were in the red zone. There are also tons of other factors I should have considered that would have been bullish or bearish for Snead’s success.

But the addition of Fleener and Thomas is just an easy example of why I needed to reconsider my position on Snead. I can see how that’s viewed as flip flopping, but you have to be flexible if you want to win your leagues and adjust to new information as it unfolds.

I want to win every league I enter and share my research along the way each Fantasy season.

I would rather say a player is terrible in January, change my opinion about him in September if there’s new information, and draft him rather than avoid him just because I didn’t think he would have a good season seven months ago.

Now, it’s also true that new information can sway you in the wrong direction…

For 2015, I was against drafting C.J. Anderson early. Drafting him in Rounds 1-2 seemed outrageous.

Editor’s Note: You can see why I thought Anderson was so risky to draft back in 2015 right here. 

But then I started to think it was a good idea to draft him when I heard new information about Anderson. I kept hearing he was going to be a workhorse, and that sounded promising knowing Gary Kubiak’s history with players like Arian Foster.

This can’t be measured so some players ignore it, but there was also reports Anderson was in great shape. There were concerns he slowed down in 2014 because he was overweight, but losing weight and being fit was a good indicator Anderson was taking things seriously.

He wanted to secure his role as the lead back.

I started to warm up to him, and I drafted in Round 2 in one of my leagues. That turned out to be a mistake, and I should have equally weighed the concerns behind drafting Anderson with the positive new information.

We all know drafting Anderson in 2015 didn’t work out. It also didn’t work out in 2016.

For 2017, I decided to put more time in weighing bullish and bearish stances on different players. And to help monitor how my opinions change or stay the same, I wanted to create 25 questions that predict certain possibilities in the 2017 Fantasy Football season.

This was similar to a forecasting project explained in Superforecasting.

This isn’t rankings. I’m not going to say the Arizona Cardinals will have the top defense in 2017, and the Kansas City Chiefs will have the second-highest scoring defense.

Instead, it’s more like predicting Super Bowl winners ahead of the season. Maybe I think the New England Patriots have a 70% to win the 2017 Super Bowl. I could also think the Green Bay Packers have a 60% to win the 2017 Super Bowl.

I’m more confident with the Patriots in that prediction, but I also think the Packers could win the Super Bowl.

So my picks are based on my confidence level right now. I’m more confident that player A will be a top player at his position, but I could also see player B, player C, and player D being the top player at his position.

The percentages I have next to each player is the percentage I feel something could happen. So if I have a 90% confidence level, that means I’m 90% sure as of this moment that player will finish at the top.

I’ going to be update this each month as new information unfolds. And by September, I will have all of my confidence levels locked up.

I’m excited to see how this plays out.

Let’s get started…

2017 Fantasy Football Quarterback Predictions

Will Aaron Rodgers Be the Top Quarterback in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 88%

As long as Jordy Nelson is healthy, Rodgers could be the top quarterback in 2017 Fantasy Football leagues. He has emerging weapons like Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery, and Rodgers has decent tight ends.

Will Matt Ryan Be the Top Quarterback in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 72%

This depends on if Julio Jones is healthy. However, I think there’s less of a chance for Ryan because he doesn’t have as many weapons as Rodgers. Unless the Atlanta Falcons add a stud receiver in the draft or find a decent playmaker in free agency, I’m less confident he’ll finish as the top Fantasy quarterback in 2017. I will give him credit for making the most of what he has to work with in 2016, but I’m not sure if it will be enough to repeat or even improve upon his numbers for 2017. I do love the fact he normally has one of the easiest schedules in the league because of his division.

Will Andrew Luck Be the Top Quarterback in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 65%

I think everything has to go right for Luck to finish as the top quarterback in 2017. T.Y. Hilton needs to be healthy, Donte Moncrief needs to be healthy, and Dwayne Allen needs to be healthy. I’m also concerned about the rushing attack for 2017, which could lead to an unbalanced offense.

Will Dak Prescott Be a Top-Five Quarterback in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 51%

Prescott is a smart player who puts his team in a position to win. He has a high completion percentage and adds extra value through his ability to run the ball. He has six rushing touchdowns on the year. However, his touchdown totals are low. And with Ezekiel Elliott eating up 15 rushing touchdowns, Prescott just may not have the need to throw that many touchdown passes.

Will Marcus Mariota Be a Top-Five Quarterback in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 49%

The Tennessee Titans aren’t quite there, but the brass has done a good job giving Mariota a chance to succeed. It looked like a mess in the beginning of the year with all the receivers on the roster, but adding Rishard Matthews and drafting Tajae Sharpe turned out to be critical for Mariota’s development. Things didn’t work out with veteran Andre Johnson, but I think Mariota would benefit from the Titans signing another veteran this year like Pierre Garcon. Part of the reason I’m down on Mariota finishing in the top five right now is because of his broken fibula. Part of the 23-year old quarterback improved his Fantasy production this season because he recorded 23 more carries and 97 more rushing yards. It’s true most of his increased production came from throwing more touchdowns, but I’m cautious right now on how his injury will affect his confidence to scramble as much next season.

How Many Quarterbacks Will Start for the Cleveland Browns in 2017?

January Outlook: 3

It’s hard to predict what direction the Browns will go in for the quarterback position in 2017. Will they try and draft a quarterback in the 2017 NFL Draft? Maybe two? Or will they give up a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick to acquire Jimmy Garoppolo? The Garoppolo acquisition could be pulled off easier than people think, so that would put my prediction down to two, accounting for if Garoppolo got hurt. Cleveland has two picks in round one, so they could send one to Patriots while still having a pick in Round 1. They also have a fifth-round pick from the New England Patriots, so they could turn that around and give it right back to them. If Jimmy G. continues on the promising path he showed during Tom Brady‘s suspension, Cleveland will be competitive. Garoppolo being acquired by Cleveland reminds me of an episode of The Office. Dwight Schrute bemoans a team he has to take to Florida for a special project. But after they impress him in a meeting, he says that it wasn’t a bad team under the right manager. This team may have disappointed with it’s quarterback carousel this year, but Terrele Pryor, Corey Coleman, Isaiah Crowell, Duke Johnson, and Gary Barnidge could be effective weapons with the right quarterback under center. But, Cleveland could also end up in a position where the only move they make is signing Case Keenum or Blaine Gabbert. The inconsistency at the quarterback position would only continue with Keenum or Gabbert and Robert Griffin III and Cody Kessler as the only options.

Will Tony Romo Play for the Cleveland Browns in 2017?

January Outlook: 10%

This move doesn’t make sense in the long term for Cleveland. Romo is 36, and he hasn’t played a 16-game season since 2012.

Will Cam Newton Play in 14 or More Games in 2017?

January Outlook: 30%

As he gets older, Newton’s not going to be able to take the same type of punishment from scrambling around and getting hit like he did when he was younger. So unless he plans to alter his style in 2017, I only believe there’s a 30% he will play in more than 14 games next season.

2017 Fantasy Football Running Back Predictions

Will Ezekiel Elliott Be the Top Back in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 93%

I’ll have to see what the final rankings are for offensive lines in 2016, but the Dallas Cowboys had the best offensive line in the NFL entering Week 11, according to Pro Football Focus. And with his talent, there’s not much more Fantasy owners can ask of Zeke. If I had to pick an area of improvement in terms of Fantasy production, I would like to see him more involved in the passing attack. Zeke finished with an average of just 2.3 receptions per game, and he finished outside the top 20 for running backs in receptions from Weeks 1-16. But, what’s not to like about his 5.1 YPC average and 1,631 rushing yards in 15 games?

Will Le’Veon Bell Be the Top Back in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 80%

With Bell, my two concerns are his injury history and two suspensions for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. The 24-year old back has only played one complete season in his career.

Will David Johnson Be the Top Back in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 79%

I was worried at the beginning of the 2016 Fantasy season Chris Johnson would cut in on his workload, but David has cemented his starting role. He more than doubled his rushing yards from 2015 (581) with 1,233 in 15 games in 2016, and he doubled his 2015 rushing touchdowns (8) to 16 from Weeks 1-16. However, his receptions and receiving yards could be unsustainable. From Weeks 1-16, he hauled in 77 receptions for 841 receiving yards. To put that in perspective, he has more receptions AND receiving yards than DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson as of Week 16. So when considering probabilities, I would place a bigger bet that Johnson regresses in receptions and receiving yards than increases them in 2017. He could still finish as the top running back in 2017, but I would be cautious about how much his receiving totals increased his overall Fantasy value.

Will Derrick Henry Be a Top-20 Back in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 51%

In my 2016 Fantasy Football class (which I will make available for free shortly so my predictions can be reviewed), I told Fantasy players to draft DeMarco Murray. When I reviewed his 2015 season, I viewed it as a breather for the 28-year old back. And with his 450 touches in 2014, he needed one. He was one of the best value picks in 2016 Fantasy Football drafts, but too many players will chase Murray’s 2016 results and make him pricey to own. I could see him going as early as Round 1 if he stays healthy from now until the preseason. But with Murray starting to pop up on injury reports near the end of the season, his large workload this season, and Henry stealing goal-line work from Murray, I see Murray less involved in 2017 because of either ineffectiveness or injuries. Henry is not known for being a pass-catching back like Murray, which is why I would view him as a top-20 back right now instead of predicting if he would finish in the top 10. As a Fantasy player looking for value and trying to limit my risk, I would much rather pay a sixth-round price tag for Henry than spend a pick in Round 1 or Round 2 on Murray.

Will Melvin Gordon Be the Top Back in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 45%

There was so much that had to happen in terms of injuries to the running backs on the San Diego Chargers for Gordon to have the type of season he did. Also, injuries and losses at the wide receiver position leave questions about if Gordon would have had as big of a role if players like Keenan Allen were still in the lineup. Philip Rivers attempted 662 passes in 2015, but only 540 through Weeks 1-16 in 2016. Now, that’s not to take anything away from Gordon. Maybe he would have had the same exact type of season if Danny Woodhead was in the lineup. But it’s important to look at all the reasons and explanations for why Gordon had a good year. I’m taking a cautious approach here if Woodhead rejoins the Chargers in 2017.

Will Todd Gurley Be a Top-20 Back in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 30%

There are players like Adrian Peterson who can have great Fantasy seasons despite playing on a bad offense. But, those players are far and few between. Unless this offense receives a massive upgrade at the quarterback position, I can’t see Gurley cracking the top 20 in 2017 Fantasy Football leagues.

 Will Matt Forte Be a Top-20 Back in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 20%

Besides age, the big thing that concerns me about Forte in 2017 is his receiving totals. When he was in Chicago, he was able to balance fewer rushing yards with his receptions and receiving totals. But for his 2016 season, Forte has recorded the fewest receptions of his career (41). And even when he only played in 13 games in 2015, he still had more receptions (44). It will also be hard for Forte to hold on to a starting role with Bilal Powell still in the lineup.

Will Any Running Back on the Denver Broncos Finish as a Top-20 Back in 2017?

January Outlook: 10%

The 2017 Fantasy Football season will probably be the first time I haven’t drafted C.J. Anderson since 2015. I can’t justify adding him to my rosters anymore. Now, I do like the fact that rookie Devontae Booker has been disappointing. If he had a good season in 2016, he would be drafted in the early rounds of 2017. However, if he can take the next steps to become a better back and just needed another year to develop before becoming relevant, he could be a great pick in the later rounds of drafts. After being shipped around the NFL, Justin Forsett could be back with the Broncos as a veteran backup to keep for depth. But as of the start of January, I don’t see any back on the Broncos finishing in the top 20.

2017 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Predictions

Will Antonio Brown Be the Top Wide Receiver in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 85%

The only thing you have to worry about with Brown is his individual performances that could let you down. For example, he only caught four passes for 39 yards in Week 6. During the 2016 Fantasy Football playoffs in Week 15, he only caught three passes for 58 yards. But in his cumulative performance for the season, he scored the most Fantasy points at the receiver position in 2016 from Weeks 1-16.

Will Julio Jones Be the Top Wide Receiver in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 80%

Jones is entering his prime, as he will turn 28 in February. The receptions and yards were there in 2016, but I’m worried that Matt Ryan threw the most touchdown passes of his career (34) and Jones only had five from Week 1-16. Surprisingly, there were four players who finished with more red-zone targets than Jones, and two of them were running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.

Will Mike Evans Be the Top Wide Receiver in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 59%

Evans doesn’t have a lot of room to improve upon his 2016 campaign. He caught 91 passes, which tied with Nelson for the fifth-most receptions in the NFL for wide receivers. He also caught over 40% of Winston’s touchdown passes.Catching more passes won’t increase his Fantasy production, so he’ll need to improve his 13.8 YPC average to finish as the top receiver in 2017 Fantasy Football leagues.

Will A.J. Green Be the Top Wide Receiver in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 30%

Green has been one of the most consistent Fantasy producers since his 2011 rookie season. But what I’m looking at for 2017 is the injuries that held him back in 2016 and that he will turn 29 in the summer.

2017 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Predictions

Will Travis Kelce Be the Top Tight End in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 80%

Kelce only has one game this season in which he caught fewer than three passes. The only thing I see right now preventing him from being the top tight in 2017 Fantasy Football leagues is if another tight end scores more Fantasy points than him, or if Jamaal Charles returns healthy and steals targets away from Kelce.

Will Rob Gronkowski Be the Top Tight End in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 60%

If Gronk is healthy, he’s the top tight end in Fantasy Football.

Will Greg Olsen Be the Top Tight End in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 50%

The magic was missing for the Carolina Panthers this season, but Olsen was still able to post a 77-1,051-3 stat line from Weeks 1-16. If he was able to catch more touchdown passes, he could have finished as the top tight end in 2016 Fantasy Football leagues. But considering Newton only threw 18 touchdowns during that time frame, Olsen’s touchdown totals have more to do with Newton than Olsen’s performance.

Will Jimmy Graham Be the Top Tight End in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 30%

Graham won’t repeat the glory days of New Orleans in Seattle, and he’s still going to be drafted on name recognition alone. He did have a much better season this year, but his Fantasy production was sporadic. And with an influx of young tight ends showing promise (Cameron Brate, Henry Hunter, Eric Ebron, Lance Kendricks), Graham could have a hard time finishing in the top five next season.

Will Delanie Walker Be the Top Tight End in 2017 Fantasy Football Leagues?

January Outlook: 20%

If you can draft Walker in Round 6 or Round 7, I think he’s a great deal. But if you have to draft him earlier in 2017 Fantasy Football leagues, I would rather take a risk on up-and-coming tight ends. If Murray can start for most of the season and Sharpe develops more, Walker could have a smaller role in 2017. Murray actually finished with more red-zone targets in Weeks 1-16 than Walker.

What are your big 2017 Fantasy Football predictions?

Categories: 2017 Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football

Tags: 2017 Fantasy Football, 2017 Fantasy Football Outlook, 2017 Fantasy Football Predictions, 2017 Fantasy Football Preview