When you have that gut feeling of starting a guy like I did with Mikel Leshoure in week 3 last year (100 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 receptions for 34 yards), you probably feel like how Rob Gronkowski feels most of the time about his life. When you listen to the hype and over analyze your starters and end up going with a decision you aren’t happy with, you normally are let down and your results are crap. How many times have we all had at least one game in the season where we would have won if we just started who we were planning to, but we listened to someone else’s advice that we didn’t even like but did what they suggested anyway? Well in my weekly segment “Why Did I Do That”, I am going to analyze three players that almost everyone has drafted and that you might be tempted to play, but shouldn’t.
1. Ronnie Hillman– Out of 14 games last year where he touched the ball at least once, his highest point total for a single game was 8 points off of 14 carries. From week 13 until the end of the season, he scored 2 points, 2 points, 2 points, 3 points, and ended up with a negative 1 point in week 17. You may want to attribute this to a lack of touches, but he has had his opportunities. Hillman had 14 touches against the Ravens in week 14 for a total of 29 yards(avg 2 yards a carry), 12 touches against the Chargers for 43 yards(avg 3.5 yards a carry), 10 touches against the Raiders for 31 yards(avg 3.1 yards a carry), and 86 yards against an atrocious New Orleans defense on 14 attempts(avg 6 yards a carry). The roster depth chart for the Broncos is meaningless. If Hillman couldn’t get anything done with little competition, why is he expected to stand out against a healthy Montee Ball and Knowshon Moreno? If Hillman gets in and starts fumbling or Peyton Manning starts getting popped, he is going to loose his spot real quick. A flex spot may seem appealing, but if you want to win your game, don’t play Hillman.
2. Mikel Leshoure- I picked him up in week three last year, and while Leshoure had some solid games fantasy wise, with the opportunities he had he should have been doing Adrian Peterson numbers. Leshoure’s fantasy relevance all comes from touchdowns. He only had one game last year where he rushed at exactly 100 yards, and that was when he was given the ball 26 times. Other than that he would rush for about 50 yards a game on 14-15 carries. If he scored you a touchdown he would give you 10-11 points for the game. If not, you were stuck with his rushing total which he netted 4 points three times. Add Reggie Bush to the mix, and he is going to have even less of an opportunity to score. If you want to hope he will still have his touchdown value, then by all means play him. Just realize the yards, touchdowns, and receiving yards are all going to be drastically cut down this year with a healthy Reggie Bush.
3.Shane Vereen- In order to be successful with all the departures, the Patriots are going to have to come together as a group and blend all their talents. There will be a mix of different wide receiver and tight end looks, but the Patriots will be looking to see their starters come together. After Tom Brady throws some bombs down field, Steven Ridley is going to run it down Buffalos throat for some big yards and a touchdown or two. Vereen will find himself in the game, but he is more a change of pace kind of guy. He is very strong and talented, but the hype around him is more of “what if” possibilities rather than actual strong projections. While this is a new team, there are still a lot of mouths to feed in New England, and this may not be the game where Vereen gets to showcase his skills with a healthy Ridley. Vereen is a good guy to have on your bench, but if I was down by 10 and had Vereen as my last player, I would be prepared to have a week one loss. He is projected to score 12 points on ESPN which I think is very high. I’m not saying that he couldn’t get that number, he might end up with 20 points, but with the Patriots looking to find their identity in week 1, I don’t think Vereen will find himself a major part of that mix.
Categories: Fantasy Football