NFL DFS Picks and Strategy for Week 6

Jon Kelly goes by the alias “JonnyTrueLove” on DraftKings. He has been playing DFS since 2013 and is currently ranked #568 in the Heavyweight division and #1,814 in Tournament Player of the Year rankings on Rotogrinders. He specializes in NFL, NBA and PGA DFS – primarily playing cash games in NFL. Some other highlights include the following:

  • Author of the The Ultimate Fantasy Football Playbook (2014,2015)
  • 2014 RealTime Sports The Fantasy Championship Individual League Winner
  • 2015 DraftKings PGA $150K Fairway Winner
  • 2016 Fantasy Aces NFL 3K SalaryPro Spin Move Winner

Quarterback

Cam Newton 2016 Fantasy Football

Cam Newton
$8100 (DK) $8900 (FD)
Over/Under: 53.5 Panthers – 2.5
Expected Ownership: 12%

Anytime Newton is on the slate, you should consider starting him. Anytime he is playing against the Saints in New Orleans, get him in your lineup! In his last two games at the dome, Newton had 557 passing yards and 8 TDs through the air to go along with 132 rushing  and a score. Newton is a strong play in all formats if you can afford him in Week 6. 

Drew Brees
$7900 (DK) $8500 (FD)
Over/Under: 53.5 Panthers – 2.5
Expected Ownership: 12%

Remember week 1 when I said Drew Brees would go overlooked at home which is never a smart decision? This is another spot where I don’t think we will see his ownership as low as week 1 but it is going to be lower than it should this week. With so many great running backs to choose from, it will be difficult to find salary to pay up for Brees and Cam this week. Brees is averaging a hair under 400 yards at home this season and has 7 TDs in those two games. Given the inexperience in the Carolina secondary, Brees has a great shot to be the top scoring QB of the slate.

Blake Bortles
$6300 (DK) $7800 (FD)
Over/Under: 45.5 Bears – 1.5
Expected Ownership: 7%

I’ve been hearing some chatter about Alex Smith and Tyrod Taylor as the best options at QB if you’re trying to save salary this week. I don’t hate those options, I just think Blake Bortles is in a much better spot to outproduce both of them come Sunday. Bortles is averaging nearly 3.5X what DraftKings has him priced at and that is without factoring in the up-tempo matchup against Chicago. This game is supposed to be close and I could see it having some shootout potential. This is once again, a great spot to stack Bortles and Allen Robinson this week.

Who are the Top Running Back Plays This Week? 

DeMarco Murray
$7700 (DK) $8800 (FD)
Over/Under: 43.5 Titans – 7
Expected Ownership: 18%

DeMarco Murray is the ONLY running back to score over 20 DraftKings points every week this season. He has 59 touches in his last two games, resulting in 266 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. He also leads running backs in red zone targets and is fifth in that category among all positions. Lastly, the Titans are a home favorite that have the fourth highest team total on the main slate. DeMarco Murray is set up for a monster game against Cleveland.

Ezekiel Elliott 2016 Fantasy Football

Photo Credit: Ezekiel Elliott Twitter

Ezekiel Elliott
$7000 (DK) $8100 (FD)
Over/Under: 47.5 Packers – 4
Expected Ownership: 4%

We always find Elliott getting no love from anyone each week and seemingly goes under owned every time and crushes value. This week could be similar as all we have heard about is how great the Green Bay Packers are at stopping the run but I’m not sure I’m convinced yet. The best running back that they have faced was Theo Riddick so it is no surprise the stats would skew their way. Elliott is the first truly talented running back they will face and he is running very well this season. He is averaging just under 22 rushes per game and over 100 rushing yards as well. He has five touchdowns this season and is always good for a few catches as well, giving him a higher floor. Elliott will be overlooked once again this week making him a top tournament play.

LeSean McCoy
$6900 (DK) $8200 (FD)
Over/Under: 44 Bills – 9
Expected Ownership: 27%

LeSean McCoy is going to be extremely chalky this week and honestly, it’s about time. Shady McCoy has been crushing this season and has yet to get the ownership that he deserves. That will change this week though in a great home matchup against the fast-paced Niners. McCoy has 382 total yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. He is very likely to get his revenge against Chip Kelly this week.

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson
$7800 (DK) $8600 (FD)
Over/Under: 45.5 Bears – 1.5
Expected Ownership: 8%

Allen Robinson could easily end up being the highest scoring WR on the slate this week. We know we are getting a great bargain on DraftKings as he is only the seventh most expensive WR and FanDuel lists him as the second most expensive. He always has multi-touchdown upside each week and now he gets a Bears secondary that has been giving up big plays all season. I mentioned before that I think this game could shoot out which will only boost Robinson’s ceiling. I think he goes over 100 yards and catches at least one touchdown this week fairly easily.

Brandin Cooks
$7600 (DK) $7500 (FD)
Over/Under: 53.5 Panthers – 2.5
Expected Ownership: 12%

For whatever reason, people hate rostering Brandin Cooks. I get that he is not the most consistent receiver from week to week but he is still Drew Brees number one option. Cooks also has favorable home splits and that is mainly due to his quarterback. They connected twice for touchdowns in week one but Cooks has yet to find the endzone since. This is a great ‘get right’ spot for Cooks after two straight disappointing weeks. This matchup is much better than the two previous and Cooks could be in for a monster day.

Tavon Austin
$3900 (DK) $5700 (FD)
Over/Under: 43.5 Lions – 3
Expected Ownership: 6%

Tavon2013-8-15

Because everybody will be trying to save at WR to pay up at RB this week, Cameron Meredith will be an extremely popular play so I am trying to look elsewhere in tournaments in some spots. Tavon Austin fits that bill at an extremely cheap price tag considering his upside. Austin has averaged nine targets per game and while he hasn’t done much with them yet this season, he still possesses breakout speed. It is not unthinkable to see him bust a big play against the Lions questionable defense. He also has special teams upside which is always a bonus.

Who To Start At Tight-End

Delanie Walker
$5500 (DK) $6700 (FD)
Over/Under: 43.5 Titans – 7
Expected Ownership: 15%

Delanie Walker is coming off a solid week where he caught five balls for 66 yards and a score. He is Mariota’s number one target in the passing game and his ONLY red-zone threat aside from DeMarco Murray. Walker gets a cushy matchup against Cleveland that has been crushed by TE’s the past two weeks. He is an excellent play in all formats.

Travis Kelce
$5000 (DK) $6400 (FD)
Over/Under: 46.5 Chiefs – 2.5
Expected Ownership: 8%

Kelce has had at least five catches and seven targets in every game this season giving him a safe floor each week. He has now caught a touchdown in back to back games and is second among TE’s in redzone targets this season. Kelce now gets a good matchup against the Raiders that are notoriously bad against TE’s, ranking sixth worst in fantasy points among TE’s this season.

Jimmy Graham
$4900 (DK) $6900 (FD)
Over/Under: 45.5 Seahawks – 6.5
Expected Ownership: 15%

Is Jimmy Graham back?!?! No, he’s been back. Graham had 17 targets the past two games before the bye week, resulting in 12 catches for 213 yards and a touchdown. He is quickly becoming what the Seahawks envisioned when trading for him last season. He now has an excellent matchup against the Falcons who have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing TE’s this season.

My Core:

Cam/Brees/Bortles/Hoyer

Bell/Murray/Zeke/Shady/Michael/Howard

Robinson/Cooks/Meredith/Tavon

Walker/Kelce/Jimmy

My top stacks:

Bortles + Arob

Bortles + Arob + Jeffery/Meredith

Cam + KB/Olsen

Brees + Cooks/Snead + Olsen

Hoyer + Jeffery + Arob (GPP only)

Sample Lineups for Week 6

 

Keep in mind, I primarily play just one optimal cash game lineup that I put into double ups, 50/50s and H2H contests. If any changes occur, I will do my best to update this immediately. 2016-17 Cash game record 4-1

 

Cash Game Lineup            Remaining Salary $0
QB Blake Bortles $6,300
RB LeSean McCoy $6,900
RB DeMarco Murray $7,700

 

WR Allen Robinson 7,800
WR Brandon LaFell $3,200
WR Cameron Meredith $4,100
TE Delanie Walker $5,500
FLEX Jimmy Graham $4,900
D/ST Seattle Seahawks $3,600

 

For tournaments, I am a multi-entry player so I am not afraid to get exposure to some players that may seem risky but with upside. If you’re only playing one tournament lineup, be aware that some of these plays may not fit the single-entry formats.

 

Tournament Lineup                     Remaining Salary $400    
QB Marcus Mariota $6,100
RB DeMarco Murray $7,700
RB Ryan Mathews $4900
WR Tavon Austin $3,900
WR Will Fuller $5,900
WR Jarvis Landry $6,800
TE Delanie Walker $5,500
FLEX Christine Michael $6,800
D/ST New Orleans Saints $2000

SHOULD I DROP DEANGELO WILLIAMS? 

Best of luck this week everyone. If you want to discuss plays and strategy, hit me up on twitter @jon_Kelly_ Also, if you use my lineup to win some money then tweet at me with a screenshot and let me know!

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Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football DFS

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