NFL DFS Picks and Strategy for Week 7

Jon Kelly goes by the alias “JonnyTrueLove” on DraftKings. He has been playing DFS since 2013 and is currently ranked #564 in the Heavyweight division and #1,868 in Tournament Player of the Year rankings on Rotogrinders. He specializes in NFL, NBA and PGA DFS – primarily playing cash games in NFL. Some other highlights include the following:

 

  • Author of the The Ultimate Fantasy Football Playbook (2014,2015)
  • 2014 RealTime Sports The Fantasy Championship Individual League Winner
  • 2015 DraftKings PGA $150K Fairway Winner
  • 2016 Fantasy Aces NFL 3K SalaryPro Spin Move Winner

 

Before we dive into this week’s column, I want to talk a little bit about strategy. Last week, I legitimately had my worst week in my NFL DFS career in terms of win rate % of cash games. It is always important to go back and analyze your lineups whether good or bad and decide if the thought process behind your plays was accurate or if you may have missed something.

 

Sometimes you don’t have to make a mistake in order to have a losing week. That’s just how thee cookie crumbles at times. Last week however, I certainly made a mistake. I’m not sure if it was because I was building so many tournament lineups to max out the $3 play-action but it threw off my thought process for cash games. You see, I made a mistake because I took unnecessary risks when I did not have to.

 

I was very high on Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson and while I still don’t think that was a bad play regardless of the result, it was a bad play in cash games. I loved that stack in tournaments last week and felt so strongly about it that I did whatever it took to get them both in cash. They had a combined ownership of 7% in the $25 double up so when they disappointed it sank me, even with having monster games from LeSean McCoy and Lamar Miller.

 

This was a great example of not trying to get cute in cash games. Most of the time, you should just play the chalk in cash games. I could have went Cam Newton – Cam Meredith or Drew Brees and Meredith and swept all my games but I was so caught up in a high risk – high reward stack which is great for tournaments but unnecessary in cash.

Side note: I am definitely going back to Bortles – Arob stack this week!

Lastly, I have been studying my game selection more frequently this season and have been moving the majority of my action to Head to Head games. In doing so, I will no longer be posting my optimal cash game lineup as I will be using that in my Head to Head games and do not want to reveal my cards to my opponents.

Now that we got that out of the way, on to the picks!

Quarterbacks for Week 7

Matt Ryan
$7200 (DK) $8700 (FD)
Over/Under: 55 Falcons – 6
Expected Ownership: 12%

 

Anytime a team is projected to score 30 points, all their key players should be considered in play. It helps that Matt Ryan is also the number one fantasy QB through the first six weeks of the season. Ryan is averaging 345 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game this season. He now has an excellent matchup against the Chargers in what should be a shootout on Sunday. Ryan is easily a top three quarterback this week.

 

Blake Bortles
$6200 (DK) $7400 (FD)
Over/Under: 47.5 Jaguars – 1.5
Expected Ownership: 8%

Some of you are probably getting sick of hearing me talk about how great of a tournament play Blake Bortles is every week. Well, if that’s you then feel free to skip over this section. Bortles has certainly got off to a rocky start this season. He hasn’t gone over 300 yards since week 2 and has yet to throw for more than two touchdowns in any game.

 

To put that into perspective, Bortles had five games last season where he threw for three or more touchdowns. Much of his struggles are due to the fact that Allen Robinson has been contained this season and is yet to surpass 100 yards in a single game. I’m betting that changes this week against Oakland who have given up the second most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. If that isn’t enough, Bortles is also priced as the cheapest he has been all season at $6200. Lastly, courtesy of FantasyLabs.com, I created a trend that fits the current situation that Bortles is in this week.

image-2

It shows an average plus of over 6 points and 85% consistency rating. After disappointing again last week, Bortles to Robinson stack is an elite tournament option once again.

 

Andy Dalton
$6000 (DK) $8100 (FD)
Over/Under: 45 Bengals -10.5
Expected Ownership: 10%

Andy Dalton has sneakily been a top 10 fantasy QB so far this season and that is without throwing for more than two touchdowns in any game. He has however, averaged 292 passing yards per game so is always a threat for the 300 yard bonus on DraftKings. Surprisingly, this is the fourth time this season where Dalton has been priced at 6K or cheaper on DraftKings and has one of the best matchups on paper against the Cleveland Browns. No Need to get cute here, Dalton is a lock and load in all formats.

Running Backs to Start This Week

 

DeMarco Murray
$7200 (DK) $8700 (FD)
Over/Under: 48 Titans – 3
Expected Ownership: 18%

 

DeMarco Murray is always a strong play in any format as he has been one of the most dominant running backs all season. He is coming off a disappointing game last week but his price has dropped a few hundred and he has another great matchup against the Colts. Murray has seen 73 carries in his last three games and that type of volume against a terrible run defense is always a strong play.

 

Devonta Freeman

$5900 (DK) $7500 (FD)
Over/Under: 55 Falcons – 6
Expected Ownership: 8%

Some people will be scared to roster one of the Falcons running backs in fear that the other could have a big game. I am not one of those people. Devonta Freeman is averaging 15 carries per game this season and has seen five targets in three of his last four games. Tevin Coleman could obviously cut into his work but we know that Freeman is the main guy and will continue to see volume if he is running well. The Chargers are tied for fifth in most fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs this season so chances are that Freeman should run well indeed.

 

Mike Gillislee
$3000 (DK) $5300 (FD)
Over/Under: 44.5 Bills – 2.5
Expected Ownership: 30%

For the price section, it should just say ‘FREE.’ LeSean McCoy is expected to miss this week’s game and that means Mike Gillislee should easily see 20 or more touches against a Dolphins defense that has been suspect so far this season. There isn’t much more to this one other than an extremely cheap option that is going to get a ton of volume. Hard to fade in this spot regardless of whether you think he is talented or not.

 

Must Play Wide Receivers on DraftKings

 

Julio Jones
$9200 (DK) $9200 (FD)
Over/Under: 55 Falcons – 6
Expected Ownership: 27%

 

Let’s get chalky…It is hard not to try to get Julio Jones in every lineup this week. We know he is capable of having those monster games that just win you the slate on any given week and this could be one of those spots. Jones has 468 yards and two touchdowns over his last three games and that was against the likes of Carolina, Denver and Seattle with obviously the game against Carolina being the biggest. It appears he is finally over whatever it was that was holding him back early in the season. Now, he gets a great matchup against a Chargers secondary without Jason Verrett and the Falcons have the highest team total on the slate. MORE JULIO!

 

A.J. Green
$8600 (DK) $8500 (FD)
Over/Under: 45 Bengals – 10.5
Expected Ownership: 18%

If you’re not paying up for Julio Jones this week (why wouldn’t you?), then you are probably getting A.J. Green into your lineups. Green is averaging seven catches and over 100 yards per game this season. This week, he gets to face a Cleveland Browns defense that is likely to be missing their top cornerback in Joe Haden. I like Green if Haden were to play so without, he is pretty much a lock.

 

Mike Evans
$7800 (DK) $8000 (FD)
Over/Under: 45.5 Pick ‘em
Expected Ownership: 15%

Mike Evans has 55 targets over his past four games and has caught a touchdown in all but one game this season. He is also averaging the most fantasy points per game by a WR so far this season (Not many people realize that because of the bye week already). He is in a great spot this week against the Niners who have one of the fastest paces in the NFL along with the Bucs. This game should be high scoring and with V-Jax now out for the season, we have no reason to think that Evans massive volume changes moving forward.

 

Tight-Ends

Rob Gronkowski

$7200 (DK) $8500 (FD)
Over/Under: 47.5 Patriots – 7
Expected Ownership: 15%

Gronkowski is clearly the main beneficiary with Tom Brady back under center. On just 16 targets the past two games, Gronk has 271 yards and a touchdown. On a week where there is plenty of value, you should be able to get some #GronkSmash in your lineups.

Delanie Walker
$4900 (DK) $6500 (FD)
Over/Under: 48 Titans – 3
Expected Ownership: 7%

 

Walker was perhaps the biggest disappointments of last week against the Browns where many people thought he would have played well. I feel okay with going back to him here in another good spot against the Colts. Walker saw just two targets last game when he saw eight targets in the previous two games. I am willing to throw last week’s performance out the window as an outlier and go back to the well here especially in tournaments.

 

Jack Doyle
$2500 (DK) $4700 (FD)
Over/Under: 48 Titans – 3
Expected Ownership: 13%

I expect Jack Doyle to be semi-popular this week due to price alone with Dwayne Allen out this week. Doyle has seen some volume while splitting snaps with Allen so we can expect that to only increase with him being on the field more and running more routes. We know how Andrew Luck loves to utilize his Tight-End especially around the redzone. Jack Doyle has already had a multi-touchdown game back in week 1 for those that forgot.

UP NEXT: SHOULD I DROP DEANGELO WILLIAMS? 

My Core:

Dalton/Bortles

Murray/Freeman/Rodgers/Gillislee

Julio/AJG/Evans/Robinson

Gronk/Doyle

 

My Top Stacks:

 

Matt Ryan + Julio Jones

Andy Dalton + A.J. Green
Blake Bortles + Allen Robinson

Blake Bortles + Allen Robinson + Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree

 

Sample Tournament Lineups for Week 7

Tournament Lineup            Remaining Salary $0
QB Blake Bortles $6,200
RB Mike Gillislee $3,000
RB Devonta Freeman $5,900

 

WR Allen Robinson 7,300
WR Amari Cooper $7,900
WR Mike Wallace $5,800
TE Rob Gronkowski $7,200
FLEX Matt Jones $4,200
D/ST Tennessee Titans $2,500

 

For tournaments, I am a multi-entry player so I am not afraid to get exposure to some players that may seem risky but with upside. If you’re only playing one tournament lineup, be aware that some of these plays may not fit the single-entry formats.

 

Tournament Lineup                     Remaining Salary $0    
QB Jameis Winston $5,900
RB DeMarco Murray $7,200
RB Melvin Gordon $6,400
WR Mike Evans $7,800
WR Adam Humphries $3,000
WR Julio Jones $9,200
TE Jack Doyle $2,500
FLEX Jacquizz Rodgers $4,300
D/ST Minnesota Vikings $3,700

 

Best of luck this week everyone. If you want to discuss plays and strategy, hit me up on twitter @jon_Kelly_ Also, if you use my lineup to win some money then tweet at me with a screenshot and let me know!

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Categories: 2016 Fantasy Football DFS

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